原木期货日报-20250514

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The demand side is suppressed by the traditional off - season in May, the demand for real - estate building materials is lower than expected, the external market quotation continues to decline, the fundamental weak - balance pattern persists, the commodity market sentiment cools down, and the futures market is expected to return to a weak operation based on reality [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 13 compared to May 12, with declines of - 1.99%, - 1.54%, and - 1.04% respectively; spreads between different contracts also decreased; basis of each contract increased; most spot prices of different types of logs in ports remained unchanged, while the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine decreased by - 3.51% [2] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly, and the import theoretical cost decreased by - 4% [2] Supply - Monthly port freight volume in April increased by 24.17% compared to March, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.79% [2] - The expected arrival volume of 18 - port coniferous logs from May 12 - 18 decreased by 70% week - on - week [3] Inventory - Weekly major port inventories decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and as of May 9, the total national coniferous log inventory was 3.43 million cubic meters [3] Demand - Weekly average daily log outbound volume decreased by 0.71 million cubic meters, and as of May 9, the average daily log outbound volume was 6.15 million cubic meters; demand in different regions decreased to varying degrees [3]