广发早知道：汇总版-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by factors such as US - China tariff negotiations, inflation data, and supply - demand dynamics in various industries. For most products, short - term price movements are affected by macro - level events, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand relationships [2][3][18]. - In the financial derivatives market, some products may present trading opportunities based on current price levels, market sentiment, and expected future developments. For example, in the stock index futures market, there are suggestions to sell put options or use certain hedging strategies; in the bond market, short - term observation is recommended, and curve - steepening strategies can be considered [4][6]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and then declined, with major indices showing mixed performance. Some sectors like shipping, ports, and daily chemicals rose, while aerospace, heavy machinery, and computer hardware declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also had different price movements, with all of them in a state of basis discount [2][3]. - News: Domestically, there are disputes over US tariffs on fentanyl. Overseas, the US April CPI was lower than expected, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts [3]. - Capital: On May 13, A - share trading volume was basically unchanged, with a total turnover of 1.29 trillion. The central bank conducted 1800 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: With the support of policies and relatively stable index bottoms, one can sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with an exercise price of 6400 for hedging [4]. Bond Futures - Market performance: Most bond futures contracts closed higher. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1800 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan. Deposit - type institutional repo rates showed different trends [6]. - Operation suggestion: Given the current situation of relatively reasonable bond yields and the potential negative impact on exports, short - term bond futures may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to changes in the capital and economic data, and consider curve - steepening strategies [6]. Precious Metals - Market review: Due to repeated trade conflicts between the US and other countries, continued slowdown of US inflation, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, precious metals prices rebounded slightly. Gold reached $3249.52 per ounce, up 0.44%, and silver closed at $32.894 per ounce, up 0.91% [9]. - Future outlook: Gold has long - term upward drivers, but in the short - term, the Fed's cautious attitude towards rate cuts and the impact of economic data may affect prices. Silver is affected by industrial demand and may have a volatile price range. Option double - selling strategies can be considered [9][10]. - Capital: Global gold ETF demand increased significantly in Q1, but short - term risk - aversion demand has weakened [11]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot: The quotes of leading shipping companies in May were relatively stable [12]. - Index: As of May 12, the SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 5.54%, while the US West Coast Line Index increased by 10.19%. The SCFI Composite Index increased by 0.321% [12]. - Fundamentals: As of May 14, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.7% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed different trends [13]. - Logic: The futures market was volatile, with the 08 contract being strong. Due to the US - China tariff agreement, the peak - season expectation in August is recovering. If the overflow of shipping capacity is eliminated, the price of the August contract may exceed 2000 points [13]. - Operation suggestion: Consider going long on the August contract or using positive - spread strategies for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts [13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 13, copper prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [13]. - Macro: US inflation slowed down, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts and boosting metal prices. The US - China tariff situation and the "232" investigation on copper also affect copper prices [14][15]. - Supply: Copper concentrate TC continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production increased. It is expected to continue to increase in May [16]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod processing and wire - cable enterprises decreased due to holidays, and the export production schedule of home appliances declined [17]. - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased [17]. - Logic: The short - term price may fluctuate. The strong current fundamentals limit the decline of copper prices, while the weak demand expectation restricts the upward space [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 79500 yuan/ton [18]. Zinc - Spot: On May 13, zinc prices declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was low [18]. - Supply: Zinc ore processing fees remained high, but there were risks in the mining end. Refined zinc production increased in April but was lower than expected [19]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased due to the low - base effect of the holiday, but the overall demand was still for rigid - need procurement. Terminal demand was affected by tariffs [20][21]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price may be supported by the relaxation of tariffs. In the long - term, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient, or it may maintain a high - level shock if the supply growth is lower than expected [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton [22]. Tin - Spot: On May 13, tin prices declined slightly, and the market trading was average [22]. - Supply: The import of tin ore decreased, but the import of tin ingots increased. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in July [23][24]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder increased in March, mainly due to policy support for the semiconductor industry. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The improvement of macro - sentiment may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectation, short - selling can be tried in the range of 265000 - 270000 yuan/ton [24]. - Operation suggestion: Try short - selling in the range of 265000 - 270000 yuan/ton [24]. Nickel - Spot: As of May 13, nickel prices declined [24]. - Supply: Refined nickel production was at a high level and continued to increase in April. The planned production in May was slightly lower [25]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was relatively stable, and the demand from the military and shipbuilding alloy industries was good. The demand for nickel sulfate was affected by cobalt and high - ice nickel production [25][26]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory decreased slightly, domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and bonded - area inventory remained stable [26]. - Logic: The short - term market may fluctuate. The improvement of macro - sentiment and cost support limit the decline, while the long - term supply increase restricts the upward space [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 122000 - 128000 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 13, stainless - steel prices increased slightly, and the basis increased [28]. - Raw materials: Nickel ore supply was tight, and nickel - iron prices were weak [28]. - Supply: The planned production of stainless - steel in May decreased slightly compared with April [28]. - Inventory: Social inventory remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - Logic: The short - term market may fluctuate. The support from raw materials and the improvement of macro - sentiment are offset by the supply - demand contradiction [30]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [30]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 13, lithium - carbonate prices remained stable, and lithium - hydroxide prices declined slightly [32]. - Supply: Lithium - carbonate production decreased in April but is expected to increase slightly in May. The overall supply pressure is still high [33]. - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [33]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is still high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating [34][35]. - Logic: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand contradiction is obvious, and the demand elasticity has a greater impact on short - term trends [35]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 62000 - 66000 yuan/ton [35]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices remained stable, and futures contracts were at a discount to the spot [36]. - Supply: Iron - element production increased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased [36]. - Demand: The apparent demand decreased significantly, and the impact of tariffs on demand needs attention. Steel exports remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Due to the May Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products increased [37]. - Cost and profit: Coke prices decreased, and blast - furnace steel mills had certain profits, while electric - arc - furnace steel mills had losses [38]. - Viewpoint: The reduction of tariffs may improve the demand expectation. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels of the 10 - month contract [38]. Iron Ore - Spot: Mainstream iron - ore powder prices declined slightly [39]. - Futures: The main iron - ore contract increased slightly [39]. - Demand: The daily average production of hot metal remained at a high level, and the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly [39]. - Supply: Global iron - ore shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased [39]. - Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel - mill inventory decreased [40]. - Viewpoint: The short - term valuation of iron ore may be repaired, but in the long - term, a bearish view is recommended [41]. Coke - Spot and futures: Coke prices declined, and the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts remained unchanged. Steel mills proposed to lower coke prices [42]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 1 yuan/ton [42]. - Supply: Coke production decreased slightly [42]. - Demand: Coke demand increased slightly [43]. - Inventory: Coke inventory decreased [44]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [45]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: Coking coal prices declined, and the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts remained unchanged. The market had a large hedging pressure [46]. - Supply: Domestic coal production increased, and the import volume of Mongolian coal increased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand from downstream industries increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly for rigid needs [48]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased, but the coal - mine inventory increased [48]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [48]. Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas remained stable or increased slightly [49]. - Futures: On May 13, the ferrosilicon contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased [49]. - Cost and profit: The cost of raw materials remained stable, and the profit was negative [49]. - Supply: The production of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure was relieved [49]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased slightly, and the price of magnesium increased [50]. - Viewpoint: The price may stabilize and rebound, but the trend is lack of momentum [51]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas increased slightly [52]. - Futures: On May 13, the manganese - silicon contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased [52]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the profit was negative [52]. - Manganese Ore: The global shipments of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory increased [53]. - Supply: The production of manganese silicon decreased [53]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased slightly [54]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may fluctuate and then rebound, but the trend is lack of momentum [55]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On May 13, domestic soybean - meal prices declined, and the trading volume decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed - meal was 3600 tons [56]. - Fundamentals: The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report was favorable for US soybeans, but the ideal planting weather in the US Midwest and the abundant supply from Brazil put pressure on prices [56][57]. - Outlook: The US - China trade tension eased, and US soybeans showed signs of recovery. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 yuan/ton [57]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was stable [58]. - Market Data: The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly in April, and the performance of sows and fattening pigs improved [58][59]. - Outlook: The short - term price may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [59]. Corn - Spot Price: On May 13, corn prices in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, and port prices were mixed [60]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of grains in Guangzhou ports decreased, and the corn inventory increased year - on - year [60]. - Outlook: The short - term price may fluctuate, and the long - term trend is positive. It is recommended to go long on dips [61]. Sugar - Market Analysis: The international raw - sugar price may fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton [62]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in April showed different trends, and the domestic sugar production increased [62].