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瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250514
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-14 09:03
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 14, the JM2509 contract closed at 894.5, up 2.11%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal remained stable. After China adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US, market pessimism improved, and coal prices rebounded from the low level. Fundamentally, supply was loose, mine production was stable, and the inventory of clean coal continued to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On May 14, the J2509 contract closed at 1482.0, up 1.58%. On the spot side, steel mills proposed the first round of price cuts for coke after the holiday. Relevant national ministries and commissions were actively deploying and promoting the adjustment of national crude steel production. The short - term supply elasticity of coke was better than that of coking coal, and the room for the increase of hot metal production was limited. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 1 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为894.50元/吨,环比上涨24.00元;J主力合约收盘价为1482.00元/吨,环比上涨35.00元;JM期货合约持仓量为455235.00手,环比减少30373.00手;J期货合约持仓量为52407.00手,环比减少2000.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 52233.00手,环比增加5533.00手;焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 161.00手,环比减少131.00手;JM1 - 9月合约价差为16.50元/吨,环比增加5.50元;J1 - 9月合约价差为26.00元/吨,环比减少2.00元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为3600.00张,环比减少1500.00张;焦炭仓单为1740.00张,环比增加50.00张;JM主力合约基差为205.50元/吨,环比减少24.00元;J主力合约基差为148.00元/吨,环比减少35.00元 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为820.00元/吨,价格不变;唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1630.00元/吨,价格不变;俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货(CFR)价格为120.00美元/湿吨,价格不变;唐山二级冶金焦价格为1635.00元/吨,价格不变 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1280.00元/吨,价格不变;京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1320.00元/吨,价格不变;山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1100.00元/吨,价格不变;内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1150.00元/吨,价格不变 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为305.51万吨,环比增加15.66万吨;110家洗煤厂精煤库存为203.26万吨,环比增加5.98万吨;110家洗煤厂开工率为62.08%,环比下降0.34% [2]. - 原煤产量为44058.20万吨,环比增加173.40万吨;煤及褐煤进口量为3782.50万吨,环比减少90.50万吨;523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为202.10万吨,环比增加0.40万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为545.97万吨,环比减少29.01万吨;焦炭18个港口库存为283.68万吨,环比减少7.11万吨 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为916.62万吨,环比减少42.66万吨;独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为94.44万吨,环比减少4.52万吨;247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为787.21万吨,环比增加2.42万吨;全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为671.03万吨,环比减少4.19万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.51天,环比增加0.05天;247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为12.10天,环比减少0.07天;炼焦煤进口量为858.81万吨,环比减少29.51万吨;焦炭及半焦炭出口量为76.00万吨,环比增加34.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4161.47万吨,环比增加538.88万吨;独立焦企产能利用率为75.44%,环比下降0.12%;独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为1.00元/吨,环比增加7.00元;焦炭产量为4129.40万吨,环比增加4129.40万吨 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.64%,环比增加0.29%;247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为92.11%,环比增加0.08%;粗钢产量为9284.14万吨,环比增加1687.22万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 山东钢铁表示2025年铁矿石市场将呈现“供强需弱”特征,长期价格下移为大概率事件 [2]. - 印度政府拟对美国部分出口至印度的产品征收关税,因美国钢铝关税影响价值76亿美元的印度产品出口 [2]. - 多家上市银行及地方农商行发布收购村镇银行公告,2024年近100家村镇银行解散,一季度超40家银行退出市场,村镇银行占比较大 [2]. - 2024年中拉贸易额5184.7亿美元创历史新高,同比增长6.0%,1 - 3月中拉贸易总额1183.0亿美元,中国出口657.3亿美元,进口525.8亿美元,中国对拉美直接投资流量147.1亿美元 [2].