瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250514

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is slow, demand is average, supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the spot price fluctuates steadily. The main live - hog futures contract rebounded unexpectedly on Wednesday, rising 1.08% and returning to the 14,000 mark, but the supply pressure remains in the future, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main live - hog futures contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the position volume was 72,340 lots, up 1,078 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 701 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 16,045 lots, down 526 lots [2] 2. Spot Market - The live - hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu were 15,100 yuan/ton, 14,500 yuan/ton, and 15,300 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The main live - hog basis was 1,080 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly live - hog inventory was 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4.039 million heads, down 27,000 heads. The month - on - month growth rate of CPI was - 0.1%, up 0.6 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton; the corn spot price was 2,373.33 yuan/ton, down 0.4 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 944.66, up 5.95. The monthly output of feed was 27.772 million tons, down 664,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,641 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live - hogs was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - hog slaughtering enterprises was 3.063 million heads, up 886,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of consumer goods was 423.5 billion yuan, down 131.4 billion yuan [2] 5. Industry News - On May 14, 2025, the daily national live - hog出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 267,569 heads, up 4.41% from the previous day. On the supply side, after the festival, breeders were reluctant to sell and control the weight, and the overall出栏 weight was stable, with little supply pressure. However, the price of fat hogs was lower than that of standard hogs, the risk of secondary fattening increased, and the enthusiasm for entry weakened. The pressure caused by the post - poned supply may gradually appear after mid - to - late May. On the demand side, after the festival, the terminal demand decreased, the sales speed of white - striped pork slowed down again, the slaughterhouse operating rate decreased, similar to the same period last year. The demand for Dragon Boat Festival stocking may pick up in the second half of the month, and there were still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas [2]