Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, supply will continue to increase, and the pressure on the spot market to sell goods remains high. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will continue to increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly month - on - month. Some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance arrangements, which had a great impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 26,505, with a month - on - month increase of 83. [2] - The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 7,120 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical was in the range of 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 - 350 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was 420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 525 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 66.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 63.67 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.72 US dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6.5 US dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 36,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 48.5%, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 74.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.86 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 173 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 5,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.52 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days. [2] Industry News - As of May 8, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. During the May Day holiday, the inventory of some production enterprises increased, and some traders replenished their stocks moderately, but the pressure to sell goods after the holiday remained. [2] - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most enterprises resumed production around May 6. [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250514
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-14 09:14