瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 14, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5864, up 0.62%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5600. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the commodity market sentiment improved. The supply side has production losses, and the enthusiasm for spot production is low. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 231,000 tons this period, and the overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month. The downstream hot metal production shows signs of peaking and falling, and price fluctuations may increase after the demand falls. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender quantity has decreased month - on - month. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On May 14, the ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5678, up 1.07%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon remained stable at 5510. The US will lift long - term sanctions on Syria, and Saudi Arabia promises to invest $600 billion in the US. The ferroalloy currently has negative production profit. The maintenance of large factories in Ningxia affects market sentiment, and the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April has been reduced, weakening cost support. The downstream magnesium metal market quotation has rebounded, and the overall steel demand expectation is still weak. Attention should be paid to market sentiment disturbances under tariff policy changes. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price: 5864 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closing price: 5678 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract position: 626,642 hands, down 5460 hands; SF futures contract position: 489,971 hands, down 790 hands [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon: - 32,624 hands, down 8931 hands; net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon: - 28,459 hands, down 4089 hands [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 54 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 118,693 sheets, down 587 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 19,048 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly): 5497 yuan/ton, down 105.42 yuan; SF main contract basis (daily): - 168 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis (daily): - 264 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port (daily): 32 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; silica (98%, northwest, daily): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke (daily): 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu, daily): 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly): 3.948 million tons, up 231,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate (weekly): 37.53%, down 3.21 percentage points; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate (weekly): 32.53%, up 1.78 percentage points [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly): 172,025 tons, down 10,780 tons; ferrosilicon supply (weekly): 102,900 tons, up 3900 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly): 207,100 tons, up 25,300 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly): 73,700 tons, down 9900 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days): 15.44 days, down 1.17 days; ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days): 15.44 days, down 0.82 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand (weekly): 125,861 tons, down 2350 tons; five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand (weekly): 20,336.3 tons, down 224.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly): 84.64%, up 0.29 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly): 92.11%, up 0.08 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 92.8414 million tons, up 16.8722 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Bill Gates said that the US technology blockade on China has achieved the opposite effect, promoting China's full - speed development in chip manufacturing and other fields [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would only participate in the talks on the Ukraine war with Russia this week if Putin also attends [2]. - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru hinted that increasing corn imports from the US would be an option in trade negotiations with the US, and Japan can use corn as ethanol fuel [2]. 3.7 Profit Situation - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon spot profit: - 135 yuan/ton; Ningxia manganese - silicon spot profit: - 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon spot profit: - 1200 yuan/ton; Ningxia ferrosilicon spot profit: - 60 yuan/ton [2].