黑色产业链日报-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US relations weakens pessimism and expectations, but the steel market remains oversupplied. The approaching off - season may lead to weaker domestic demand, and the export demand is achieved by sacrificing prices, which restricts the upward space of the futures market [3]. - The iron ore futures are likely to continue to rebound in the short term due to high discounts, good demand, slow recovery of overseas supply, and the Sino - US trade agreement [18]. - The overall sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted by the tariff negotiation, but the rebound of coking coal and coke is limited. Coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is large [36]. - Silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound in the short term as short - sellers take profits and the Sino - US tariff easing benefits the macro - environment, but the high - inventory situation remains [57]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term supply disruptions due to maintenance, the current futures market is under pressure, and further price cuts by alkali plants may drive the price down [73]. - The glass spot market is weak. The futures price is close to the level of full - industry losses. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low price persists, and price fluctuations may increase [98][99]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Futures Price and Spread: On May 14, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts generally increased, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed [4]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed little change, and the basis of some contracts decreased [10]. - Ratio: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [16]. Iron Ore - Price Data: On May 14, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased compared with the previous day, and the basis of some contracts also changed. The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao increased [19]. - Fundamental Data: The average daily pig iron output increased slightly, the port dredging volume decreased, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased, the global shipping volume decreased slightly, the Australian and Brazilian shipping volume decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures Price and Spread: The futures prices of coking coal and coke changed little, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed [37]. - Spot Price and Profit: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed little change, and the import and export profits of some types of coal and coke changed [38][40]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: The basis of silicon iron decreased, the price spreads between different contracts changed, the spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [58]. - Silicon Manganese: The basis of silicon manganese decreased, the price spreads between different contracts changed, the spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [59]. Soda Ash - Futures Price and Spread: On May 14, 2025, the futures prices of soda ash increased, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [74]. - Spot Price and Spread: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained unchanged, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in some regions remained stable [75]. Glass - Futures Price and Spread: On May 14, 2025, the futures prices of glass increased, and the price spreads between different contracts changed [100]. - Spot Sales: The sales rates in different regions showed fluctuations, and the basis of some contracts decreased [100][101].