瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250514

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the caustic soda industry, dated May 14, 2025, provided by Ruida Futures [2]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2570. The reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariff rates to 10% within 90 days is beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports such as clothing. There is still support from overseas markets like Indonesia. However, the high - cost alumina plants' production cuts and new capacity launches coexist, with limited profit repair and difficult improvement in caustic soda consumption demand. Non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the futures trading volume is 678,133 lots, up 113,667 lots; the futures open interest is 190,125 lots, down 16,636 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,734 lots, down 8,248 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2520 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan, and the May contract is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 2. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 676 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 95 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [3]. 4. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 2895 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [3]. - From May 2 - 8, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.2% to 83.9% week - on - week. As of May 8, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 6.6% week - on - week to 388,400 tons (wet tons), and decreased by 10.72% year - on - year [3]. - As of May 8, the alumina plant production cuts became more widespread, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to a low level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 1.29% to 79.71% week - on - week, and the dyeing operating rate increased by 0.63% to 60.68% week - on - week [3]. 6. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.6% to 388,400 tons last week, at a moderately high level in the same period. In May, the shut - down capacity in the chlor - alkali industry increased, alleviating the supply pressure. The alumina high - cost plant production cuts and new capacity launches coexisted, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. The non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports, and there is still support from overseas markets [3].