广发期货《有色》日报-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a combination of "strong current situation + weak expectation". The short - term price is likely to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to range between 77,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. The macro - level factors and the uncertainty of demand in the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the inventory reduction and the easing of tariff sentiment support the price, but the expected weakening of demand and the decline in cost put pressure on the price. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate [3]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price may be supported by the easing of tariff signals. In the future, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies, or maintain a high - level oscillation if the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption exceeds expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The macro - sentiment improvement may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply - side restoration and the pessimistic demand expectation, short - selling can be attempted in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply - side raw material restoration rhythm [7]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The main contract price is expected to range between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to fluctuate. The raw - material end provides some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. The main contract price is expected to range between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price is expected to show a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is relatively flat, and the inventory is still high. The main contract price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: Most copper prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 78,155 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 11.54% [1]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the import volume in March increased by 15.24%. The domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: Aluminum prices generally increased, with SMM A00 aluminum at 20,010 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The import loss and the spreads between some contracts changed [3]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production changed. The开工 rates of some aluminum products also changed, and the inventories at home and abroad decreased [3]. Zinc - Price and Spread: Zinc prices decreased slightly, with SMM 0 zinc ingot at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The import loss increased, and the spreads between some contracts decreased [4]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the import volume in March increased by 9.47%. The开工 rates of downstream industries increased [4]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: Tin prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 tin at 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly [7]. - Fundamental Data: In March, the tin ore import decreased, while the refined tin production and import increased. The inventories of some varieties decreased [7]. Nickel - Price and Basis: Nickel prices decreased, with SMM 1 electrolytic nickel at 124,950 yuan/ton, down 1.79%. The import loss decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the Chinese refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and the import volume decreased by 68.84%. The inventories at home and abroad changed [8]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: Stainless - steel prices were slightly adjusted, with the 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) at 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spreads between some contracts changed [11]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the 300 - series stainless - steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and the export volume increased by 70.98%. The inventories changed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: Lithium carbonate prices were mostly stable, with SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spreads between some contracts changed [13]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the lithium carbonate production decreased, while the demand increased. The inventory increased, and the开工 rate increased [14].