原油成品油早报-20250514

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from May 7 - 13, 2025 - WTI crude oil rose from $58.07 to $63.67, an increase of $1.72 [3] - BRENT crude oil increased from $61.12 to $66.63, a gain of $1.67 [3] - DUBAI crude oil went up from $61.53 to $65.45, rising by $1.06 [3] - SC decreased by 2.80, OMAN increased by 1.12, and SC - BRT dropped by 1.98 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and domestic diesel price rose by 59.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased, Singapore 380 - BRT changed, and上期所FU - BRT decreased by 10.45 [3] -上期所BU - BRT decreased by 11.21, and HH natural gas decreased by 0.030 [3] - BFO increased by 1.06 [3] Group 3: Daily News - BofA: Saudi Aramco can quickly increase oil production at low cost, potentially raising daily output from about 9.4 million barrels to about 12 million barrels within weeks, with an estimated $12 billion increase in operating cash flow for every additional 1 million barrels per day [3] - Trump: Hopes to reach an agreement with Iran; if Iran refuses, will apply maximum pressure and reduce Iranian oil exports to zero [4] - Goldman Sachs: Given recent trade easing, expects an upward risk of about $3 - $4 per barrel for Brent/WTI crude oil prices in the remainder of 2025, with forecasts of $60/$56; 2026 price forecasts are $56/$52 [4] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9 was 4.287 million barrels, against an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels [4] - Iran - EU nuclear talks: Iran will hold talks with European parties in Istanbul on Friday. European powers may start the "snap - back sanctions" in August if no substantial agreement is reached [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US EIA Data for the Week Ending May 2 - US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [6] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decline [6] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase [6] - US EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.6 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.003 million barrels [6] - US EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels, against an expected - 1.271 million barrels and a previous value of 937,000 barrels [6] China's Market Situation - This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries declined. China's gasoline and diesel production decreased, with both major and local refineries seeing drops in production and sales rates, and none achieving production - sales balance. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased by over 4%. Major refineries' and local refineries' comprehensive profits rebounded [7] Group 5: Weekly View - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the Anglo - American trade agreement reached, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs eased, but the China - US tariff negotiation remains unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of Iran - US nuclear talks started in Oman [7] - Fundamentally, global oil products seasonally accumulate inventory. US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years. After the oil price decline, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs decreased rapidly, and the BW spread narrowed recently. Global refinery profits are recovering, but refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates recovered first, and US gasoline and diesel inventories are still low. With refining capacity elimination restricting supply, gasoline and diesel cracking has support, and it is expected to maintain a situation of stronger gasoline than diesel in the near term [7] - In China, refinery operating rates decreased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly, and refinery profits recovered. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement in macro - sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran - US talks achieve unexpected progress. In the long - term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [7]