社融符合预期，政府债有力支撑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the banking sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the social financing (社融) growth in April 2025 was stable and met expectations, supported by government bonds and a low base effect from the previous year [1][3][17]. - It is anticipated that the credit growth rate will remain between 7% and 8% in 2025, driven by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][17]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Government Bonds - In April 2025, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the previous year, primarily due to the early issuance of government bonds [2][10][24]. - The total social financing for the first four months of 2025 reached 16.34 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan [3]. Credit Demand and Lending Trends - April saw a decrease in both corporate and retail lending, with total new loans amounting to 280 billion yuan, down 450 billion yuan year-on-year [11]. - Corporate loans increased by 604.1 billion yuan, but this was a decrease of 234 billion yuan compared to the previous year, largely due to the impact of debt replacement policies [11][12]. - Retail short-term loans decreased by 4.019 trillion yuan, while retail medium- and long-term loans saw a slight decrease of 1.231 trillion yuan [13]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth was stable at 1.5%, while M2 growth increased to 8.0%, reflecting a rebound from a low base last year [14][16]. - The report notes that the decrease in deposits was minor, with a reduction of 440 billion yuan in April, which is significantly less than the 3.5 trillion yuan drop observed in the same month last year [16]. Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes that despite the traditional seasonal decline in credit in April, the support from government bonds has been significant, and the overall credit environment remains stable [17]. - The expectation is for a gradual improvement in credit demand as economic policies take effect, particularly for small and medium enterprises [17][18].