大越期货纯碱早报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level but declining, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is declining but still at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1345 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1345 yuan/ton, and the basis is 0 yuan. The futures are at par with the spot. It is neutral [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1701300 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - Positive Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash, and progress has been made in Sino - US tariff negotiations [4]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - alkali downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1291 | 1345 | 4.18% | | Low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1325 | 1345 | 1.51% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | 34 | 0 | - 100.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Profit: The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - alkali in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - alkali in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - Weekly Industry Operating Rate: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded [16]. - Weekly Output: The weekly output of soda ash is 740700 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 407900 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 55.07% [21][24]. - Downstream Demand: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the output has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total domestic inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1701300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 872200 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]