棉花早报-20250515

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with reciprocal tariff cuts. The USDA May report shows that the 2025/26 cotton production will decline while consumption will increase, and the ending inventory remains unchanged. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In March, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2024/25 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b is 14,484 yuan, with a basis of 1039 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - The inventory situation: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of the 2024/25 ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - From the chart perspective, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions: The net short positions are increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - In terms of expectations, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year in April, indicating that exports are in a good state. With the Sino - US tariff cuts and last week's interest rate and reserve ratio cuts, there are many short - term positive factors, leading to a rapid rebound in futures. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the vicinity of the previous gap, and the selling pressure above has increased, weakening the upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 13,600 in the near future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The previous Sino - US reciprocal tariff increases have been reduced, and there will be a foreign trade restocking period in the next 90 days. The futures price is close to the historical low [5]. - Bearish factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, and Europe has introduced a bill to restrict imports [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Production: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9% (- 653,000 tons); India's production is expected to be 5.334 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% (- 109,000 tons); while some regions like 'E' are expected to increase production by 7% (273,000 tons). The total global production is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% (- 710,000 tons) [10]. - Global Consumption: In 2025/26, global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% (304,000 tons) [10]. - Global Import and Export: The total global imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 9.759 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% (510,000 tons), and exports are expected to be 9.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% (517,000 tons) [11]. - Global Ending Inventory: The global ending inventory in 2025/26 is expected to be 17.065 million tons, with little change compared to the previous year [11]. - China's Cotton Situation: In 2024/25 (April estimate) and 2025/26 (May forecast), the beginning inventory is 7.12 million tons and 8.31 million tons respectively; the sown and harvested areas are increasing; the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.25 million tons; imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons; consumption is expected to be 7.4 million tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.53 million tons [18]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.