大越期货天胶早报-20250515

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][10][11][13][14][16][17][19][20][22][23][25][26][28][29][31][32][34][35] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling. The overall situation is neutral. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices. Negative factors include increased supply, increased market inventories, and a bearish external environment [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided [2] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling [4] - Inventory: Exchange inventories are seasonally increasing, and Qingdao region inventories have resumed increasing. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao region inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [4][14][17] - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) rose on May 14th [8] 3. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Positive Factors: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6] - Negative Factors: Supply is increasing, market inventories are increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 15,150, and the basis is - 85, indicating a bearish situation. The basis narrowed on May 14th [4][35]