Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with the copper price expected to move in a volatile manner. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory situation is neutral, the market trend is bullish, the main positions are bullish, and considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the copper price will mainly fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to recover; the situation is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 78,480, with a basis of - 460, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: On May 14, copper inventory decreased by 4,075 tons to 185,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 8,602 tons to 80,705 tons compared to the previous week; the situation is neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the copper price will mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [23].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250515
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-15 02:32