建信期货棉花日报-20250515

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Report Core View - Tariffs entered a relaxation period, Zhengzhou cotton filled the gap, but the overall weak fundamental pattern remained unchanged. It is recommended to focus on the performance of the upper resistance level and mainly conduct range operations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot cotton price index: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Spot cotton basis quotes: In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 machine - picked cotton were above CF09 + 1000, with some high quotes above 1100; in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar, the basis for machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton was above CF09 + 800, and some non - Kashgar high - quality lint was quoted around CF09 + 1000 [7] - Pure cotton yarn market: This week's trading was still average, with demand declining in the off - season. Spinning mills mostly raised prices, but downstream procurement decreased after the price increase, and inventory accumulated, with overall market confidence lacking [7] - All - cotton grey fabric market: It was sluggish, with a significant decline in order volume and shipping speed, and it is expected that the inventory of weaving factories will continue to increase [7] - Macro aspect: The tariff relaxation period took effect at 12:01 on May 14, and positive effects continued to be released [8] - Overseas market: The US Department of Agriculture's May global cotton supply - demand report was slightly bearish, and the outer market was under pressure within a wide - range shock range. Attention should be paid to the subsequent growth and signing of US cotton [8] - Domestic market: The overall planting of new cotton was good, the sown area was expected to increase steadily, and the overall growth was okay. The downstream was in a weak state in the off - season, with the finished product inventory gradually accumulating but the inventory pressure not high. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicted that in the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton would still show a trend of increasing production and weak consumption [8] 2. Industry News - 2025/26 season: China's cotton sown area is expected to be 2,878 thousand hectares (43.17 million mu), a 1.4% increase from the previous year; the yield per hectare is expected to be 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as the previous year; the cotton output is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous year [9] - Consumption and import: Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, with consumption in the new season expected to be 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous year, and imports expected to be 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple figures related to cotton, including futures prices, basis changes, spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][22]