大越期货尿素早报-20250515

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated May 15, 2025, from Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [2][4] - It provides an overview of the urea market, including fundamentals, key factors, and an expected market trend [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The urea market is expected to be volatile today, with a short - term rebound in the main contract, high daily production, inventory accumulation, declining compound fertilizer production, and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [4] Group 4: Detailed Summary Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has rebounded recently. Supply is high with new capacity coming online, and inventory has accumulated again after a decline. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has marginally improved. There are many rumors about export policies, but no official confirmation [4] - Key Factors - Likely to be Bullish: Export policy expectations and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [5] - Likely to be Bearish: High production and daily output, inventory accumulation, and weak industrial demand [5] - Main Logic: High supply and marginal changes in demand [5] - Expected Trend: The main urea contract is expected to be volatile today [4] Market Data - Spot and Futures: The spot price of the delivery product is 1930 (unchanged), the UR2509 contract basis is 33, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.7% [4][6] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 119.9 million tons (- 11.1 million tons) [4] - Technical Indicators: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main contract's net position is short [4] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, urea capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [10]