建信期货沥青日报-20250515

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 15, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2506 opened at 3505 yuan/ton, closed at 3521 yuan/ton, with a high of 3540 yuan/ton, a low of 3490 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, and a trading volume of 14.02 million lots. BU2507 opened at 3492 yuan/ton, closed at 3499 yuan/ton, with a high of 3510 yuan/ton, a low of 3469 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.16%, and a trading volume of 7.12 million lots [6] - Spot Market: As of the noon session today, asphalt spot prices in North China and Shandong regions increased, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. The continuous rise in crude oil and asphalt futures has boosted the sentiment in the asphalt spot market, and the overall upward trend in recent days has led to an increase in the average domestic asphalt price [6] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: After Venezuela's resources are once again subject to strict sanctions, the discount of diluted asphalt may decline again. Considering the intensifying sanctions on countries like Iran, the tightness of raw materials may persist, and processing profits are difficult to guarantee, which will affect the production willingness of local refineries to some extent. The total planned asphalt production of domestic refineries in May is about 2.23 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 140,000 tons (7%) and a year-on-year increase of 20,000 tons (1%) [7] - Demand: There is still an expectation of improvement in demand in May. The high-level meeting in April emphasized accelerating the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. Since the beginning of this year, the issuance of new local special bonds has accelerated. The cumulative issuance of new special bonds in the first quarter was close to 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%. The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2025 has also begun [7] Operation Suggestions - Short-term oil prices are expected to rebound, and it is expected that asphalt will follow suit, but the increase may be limited. The previous long asphalt and short crude oil positions should be closed for profit [7] Group 3: Regional Market Data - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 Grade A asphalt is 3470 - 3750 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The continuous rise in international oil prices and asphalt futures has boosted the cost and market sentiment, leading to an increase in the prices of some traders and refineries today and driving up the market price in Shandong [10] - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 Grade A asphalt is 3500 - 3570 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. Today, the road and shipping prices of Ningbo Keyuan increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of other refineries remained temporarily stable. Since May, the demand in the East China market has not improved significantly, and the road and shipping shipments of refineries and social warehouses have remained weak. The strengthening of crude oil and asphalt futures provides some support [10]