大越期货菜粕早报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Rapeseed Meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The price of rapeseed meal has rebounded after reaching the bottom, influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventories support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually increasing. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, oil - mill inventories are not under immediate pressure. The short - term price will return to range - bound trading. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but since there is no additional tariff on rapeseed imports, the positive impact may be limited [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season, with tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the result yet to be determined. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production, there is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Positive factors: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. - Negative factors: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot price and basis: The spot price is 2420, and the basis is - 89, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is a negative factor. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week from 14,500 tons last week and 20% year - on - year from 30,000 tons in the same period last year, which is a negative factor. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor. - Aquaculture and related prices: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. The import volume of rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded after reaching the bottom. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has slightly decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory has returned to a low level. Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has slightly decreased [8][10]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main contract has increased, but the capital has flowed out, which is a positive factor [10]. 3.6 Other Data Summaries - Trading volume and price data: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 30 to May 14 show that the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has oscillated and declined. - Rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary: The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 30 to May 14 show that the rapeseed meal market has had a narrow - range oscillation, with the spot price following the futures price with small fluctuations, and the basis discount remaining at a relatively high level. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics: The warehouse receipt data from April 29 to May 14 shows the changes in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 to 2023 show the supply - demand situation of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal [14][15][17].