大越期货沥青期货早报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side has increased pressure as refineries have recently increased production, but it is expected to decrease next week. The demand side is affected by the off - season, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory and continuous restocking in factory inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3494 - 3548 [7][9] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 29.2426%, a month - on - month increase of 0.419 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 488,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%. The estimated device maintenance volume is 727,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 28.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 8.6262%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7] - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 447.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 23.20%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 701.2071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8] - Expectation: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3494 - 3548 [9] - Base - spread: On May 14, the Shandong spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, and the 07 - contract base - spread was 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11] - Inventory: Social inventory is 1,395,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%; factory inventory is 839,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.42% [11] - Market: MA20 is upward, and the 07 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [11] - Main Position: The main position has a net long position, and the long position increases [11] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Base - spread Trend: Charts show the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - spreads from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: Charts show the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24] - Spread Analysis - Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [28] - Spread Analysis - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31] - Spread Analysis - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [34] 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions: Charts show the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [36][37] 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [40] - Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: A chart shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44] - Supply - side - Shipment Volume: A chart shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46] - Supply - side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: A chart shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - Supply - side - Output: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [51] - Supply - side - Venezuelan Crude Oil Price and Production Trend: A chart shows the historical trends of Venezuelan crude oil price and monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56] - Supply - side - Refinery Asphalt Output: A chart shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58] - Supply - side - Capacity Utilization Rate: A chart shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [60][61] - Supply - side - Maintenance Loss Estimation: A chart shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [63][64] - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][69] - Inventory - Social and Factory Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of social and factory asphalt inventory from 2022 to 2025 [70][71] - Inventory - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: A chart shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73][74] - Import and Export - Export and Import Trends: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76][77] - Import and Export - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: A chart shows the historical trends of the import spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80][81] - Demand - side - Petroleum Coke Output: A chart shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - Demand - side - Apparent Consumption: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85][86] - Demand - side - Downstream Demand: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - Demand - side - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: Charts show the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [97][98][101] - Demand - side - Downstream Capacity Utilization Status: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][104][106] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: A table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including output, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108][109]