贵金属日评-20250515

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: May 15, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term cooling of Sino - US trade tensions and the prospects of Russia - Ukraine negotiations weaken the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the lower - than - expected US CPI in April and the weakening of the US dollar index provide some support for precious metals. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset [4]. - In the medium term, although gold prices have corrected due to partial profit - taking and government remarks, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving up gold prices will continue to exist, and investors are advised to trade with a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing, and not blindly guess the top. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook Intraday Trends - Sino - US trade tension cooling and Russia - Ukraine negotiation prospects reduce precious metals' safe - haven demand, while lower - than - expected US CPI in April and a weak US dollar index support precious metals. London gold runs weakly above $3200 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio drops to around 98.5 [4]. Medium - term Trends - In early April, Trump's tariff measures shocked the global market and depressed financial assets. However, due to the damage to the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand drove the London gold price to break through $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although there was a correction, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving up gold prices will continue to exist, and gold price volatility has increased [5]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 768.55 | 769.04 | 761.69 | 762.62 | - 0.77 | 453,027 | 0 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,257 | 8,257 | 8,174 | 8,210 | - 0.56 | 875,273 | - 13,683 | | Gold T + D | 763.40 | 764.75 | 757.00 | 758.60 | - 0.63 | 216,998 | - 7,820 | | Silver T + D | 8,214 | 8,205 | 8,121 | 8,172 | - 0.51 | 3,391,270 | - 1,490 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced the lifting of long - term sanctions on Syria during his Persian Gulf trip and said Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US [18]. - US consumer prices rose moderately in April, with the smallest annual increase in four years. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to appear in the middle of the year [18]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would only participate in the Russia - Ukraine talks if Putin also attends. Trump will send Secretary of State Rubio to the talks and is willing to attend in person [18]. - China criticized the UK - US trade agreement, stating that international cooperation should not harm third - party interests [18]