白糖日报-20250515

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rose, with the main July contract up 2.71% to 18.18 cents per pound. The main August contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 3% to $509.80 per ton. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of April was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decrease of over 50% due to excessive rainfall affecting production. Also, the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under the stimulus of a warming macro - environment led to the strengthening of raw sugar prices [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. The 09 contract closed at 5,906 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan or 0.65%, with a reduction of 10,042 positions. The spot prices in domestic producing areas increased slightly. Today's rise of Zhengzhou sugar mainly followed the overseas market, with a relatively small increase. Sugar mills also raised their quotes slightly, but overall, market participants' enthusiasm was not high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Quotes: SR509 closed at 5,906 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan or 0.65%, with a position reduction of 10,042 lots; SR601 closed at 5,759 yuan per ton, up 29 yuan or 0.51%, with an increase of 305 lots; US sugar 07 closed at 18.18 cents per pound, up 0.48 cents or 2.71%, with a position reduction of 3,453 lots; US sugar 10 closed at 18.36 cents per pound, up 0.49 cents or 2.74%, with an increase of 1,567 lots [7]. - Domestic Spot Market: The spot price in the domestic sugar - producing area increased. The price of Kunming sugar was 5,975 yuan, and that of Nanning sugar was 6,170 yuan [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Global Sugar Demand: According to StoneX's research data, global sugar demand has been growing at a rate of 1.1% per sugar - making season in the past 15 years. It is expected that in the 2024/25 season (from October to September of the following year), global sugar demand will reach 178 million tons (in white sugar equivalent) or 193.6 million tons (in raw sugar equivalent) [9]. - Yunnan Sugar Mill Shutdown: As of the latest date, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan have shut down, 4 fewer than the same period last year, with a shutdown production capacity of 153,400 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared to the same period last year. There are still 9 sugar mills operating [9]. - Brazilian Sugar Exports: In April, Brazil exported 1,555,777.09 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 77,788.85 tons, a 9% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in April last year [9]. - Guangxi Sugar Sales: As of the end of April, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 4.1353 million tons, an increase of 554,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, a 6.03 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. In April, the monthly sugar production was 4,200 tons, a decrease of 72,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the monthly sugar sales were 657,300 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a decrease of 270,700 tons compared to the same period last year [9]. - Yunnan Sugar Sales: As of April 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan reached 1.3168 million tons (compared to 941,100 tons in the same period last year). The monthly sugar sales in April were 280,400 tons (compared to 189,500 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71% (compared to 46.53% in the same period last year), the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons (compared to 1.0816 million tons in the same period last year), and the alcohol sales were 28,200 tons (compared to 26,400 tons in the same period last year) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Futures Market Transaction Data: On May 14, 2025, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 282,713 lots, an increase of 69,642 lots; the total long - position volume was 225,730 lots, a decrease of 2,477 lots; the total short - position volume was 216,826 lots, a decrease of 9,029 lots. Among them, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume, long - position volume, and Cofco Futures had the highest short - position volume [20].