建信期货铜期货日报-20250515

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SHFE copper increased in price with rising positions. The spread between the 05 and 06 contracts widened to 500. There is still a delivery risk as the registered warehouse receipts cannot meet the current open interest of the 05 contract. However, the approaching opening of the import window and the narrowing of the COMEX - LME spread are expected to increase imported supplies, making a squeeze difficult to succeed. The high - spread structure in the short term suppresses downstream demand, and domestic social inventories are expected to accumulate in May. Thus, the high BACK structure of the futures market is unlikely to last, and one can short the inter - month spread. [6] - The overnight US CPI data was lower than expected, opening up room for the Fed to cut interest rates. With short - term macro - level positive factors emerging one after another, copper prices are expected to continue to rise. The single - side strategy is mainly to buy on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SHFE copper 05 contract will have its last trading day tomorrow. The 05 - 06 spread widened to 500, and the 05 contract still has 13,445 open positions while the registered warehouse receipts are 50,069 tons. The import window is approaching to open, and the COMEX - LME spread has narrowed to around 700, increasing the expected imported supplies. The high - spread structure suppresses downstream demand, and domestic social inventories are expected to accumulate in May. One can short the inter - month spread. [6] - The lower - than - expected US CPI data is positive for copper prices, and the single - side strategy is to buy on dips. [6] 3.2 Industry News - On May 13, Western Mining stated on the interactive platform that from 2020 - 2024, its net profit compound growth rate was 41%. The mine capacity has been continuously expanding, and the production of mined copper has achieved leap - forward growth, becoming a new profit growth point. In 2024, the deterioration of smelting processing fees and year - end asset impairment affected the net profit attributable to the parent company. The precious and non - ferrous metal comprehensive recycling and environmental protection upgrade project started trial production at the end of 2024. [10] - On May 13, two sources said that the Indian government is expected to argue that the domestic cathode copper supply is sufficient and the number of suppliers is large in response to a lawsuit filed by two trade associations regarding import restrictions. India, the world's second - largest refined copper importer, depends on imports to fill the supply gap. In December 2024, the Indian government implemented quality control measures on cathode copper imports, requiring all domestic and foreign suppliers to obtain certification from Indian authorities. Two trade associations have filed a petition with the Bombay High Court, claiming that the government's move may lead to a monopoly by three domestic suppliers. [10] - On May 10, Luoyang Copper Processing and Luoyang Tongyi Metal Materials Development Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement, aiming to achieve more cooperation opportunities in technological innovation, industrial synergy, and market expansion, and promote the high - quality development of the non - ferrous metal industry. [11]