燃料油早报-20250515

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur crack fluctuated, the 380 near-end ran strongly, and the basis fluctuated. The low-sulfur crack continued to strengthen, the monthly spread strengthened, and the basis fluctuated. Singapore's onshore inventory decreased significantly, ARA's decreased slightly, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. Singapore's high-sulfur floating storage increased significantly, with overall inventory accumulation, while the Middle East's floating storage decreased, and Saudi Arabia's exports increased significantly. Fujairah's floating storage and Europe's floating storage increased. Recently, the low-sulfur market has strengthened marginally, and attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments. The high-sulfur market fluctuates at a high level, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has declined significantly, and the bunker fuel demand is expected to be weaker year-on-year due to tariff impacts. In the future, attention should be paid to the power generation demand and procurement demand, as well as the medium-term short allocation opportunity for the high-sulfur crack [6][7] Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 385.77 to 406.15, a decrease of 2.28; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed from 431.14 to 451.49, a decrease of 0.76; Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 changed from -1.51 to -1.58, a decrease of 0.19; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed from 571.02 to 606.04, an increase of 3.48; Rotterdam VLSFO-G M1 changed from -139.88 to -154.55, a decrease of 4.24; LGO-Brent M1 changed from 16.22 to 17.57, an increase of 0.91; Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 changed from 45.37 to 45.34, an increase of 1.52 [4] Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 402.45 to 433.27; Singapore 180cst M1 changed from 412.95 to 442.48; Singapore VLSFO M1 changed from 467.39 to 498.06; Singapore GO M1 changed from 76.00 to 81.58; Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 changed from 2.28 to 2.53; Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 changed from -95.01 to -105.63 [4] Group 4: Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed from 402.67 to 432.78, an increase of 4.14; the FOB VLSFO price changed from 481.67 to 511.73, an increase of 16.22; the 380 basis changed from -1.30 to -1.45, a decrease of 2.45; the high-sulfur domestic and foreign price difference changed from 7.6 to 7.9, a decrease of 0.3; the low-sulfur domestic and foreign price difference changed from 11.9 to 17.0, an increase of 0.7 [5] Group 5: Domestic FU Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01 changed from 2584 to 2755, an increase of 46; FU 05 changed from 2566 to 2697, an increase of 32; FU 09 changed from 2707 to 2893, an increase of 54; FU 01 - 05 changed from 18 to 58, an increase of 14; FU 05 - 09 changed from -141 to -196, a decrease of 22; FU 09 - 01 changed from 123 to 138, an increase of 8 [5] Group 6: Domestic LU Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01 changed from 3237 to 3451, an increase of 76; LU 05 changed from 3219 to 3401, an increase of 141; LU 09 changed from 3298 to 3521, an increase of 85; LU 01 - 05 changed from 18 to 50, a decrease of 65; LU 05 - 09 changed from -79 to -120, an increase of 56; LU 09 - 01 changed from 61 to 70, an increase of 9 [6]