LPG早报-20250515

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term PG futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From May 8 - 14, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: domestic civil gas in Shandong decreased by 30 to 4670, in East China remained stable at 4931, and in South China decreased by 20 to 5000; imported gas in East China decreased by 24 to 5066, and in South China remained stable at 5080; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4690. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4670. The PG futures price fluctuated, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 314, and the 06 - 07 spread weakened to 86. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Market Conditions Last Week - The domestic civil gas market was weak last week. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four moved down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures price center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened [1] Fundamental Data - The LPG commodity volume was 485,500 tons (-1.06%), and the external supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks; the PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market Conditions - CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, FEI - MB rose slightly, and FEI - CP and CP - MB changed little. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventories were basically flat, exports increased, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. The CP official price is expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]