有色早报-20250515

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - Supply and Demand: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - Supply and Demand: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - Supply and Demand: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - Supply and Demand: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - Supply and Demand: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - Supply and Demand: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - Supply and Demand: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - Supply and Demand: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - Supply and Demand: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]