《农产品》日报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of the futures price falling and adjusting again due to potential negative factors such as increasing production and expected significant inventory growth at the end of May. The domestic palm oil futures may fluctuate after breaking through 8,200 yuan and could potentially rise to 8,300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: If the proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US is passed, the use of soybean oil in biofuel production will increase significantly. Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil will gradually increase after the Dragon Boat Festival, which may drag down the market [1]. Meals - The US soybean trend is strong due to eased Sino - US trade tensions and downward - adjusted estimates of US soybean production and ending stocks. However, the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant without obvious positive support. The basis is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable with little change in the supply - demand relationship. The price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The 09 contract has returned above 14,000, with limited upward and downward movement [5][6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a strong bottom support. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. The corn starch market shows some fluctuations in relevant indicators [7]. Sugar - The short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to remain volatile within the range of 5,800 - 5,950 yuan per ton [11]. Cotton - The downstream of the cotton industry is gradually weakening, and the supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 13,500 - 13,700 yuan per ton [12]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the demand is average in most markets. The price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On May 14, compared with May 13, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil generally increased, with different changes in basis, spreads, and inventory [1]. - Policy Impact: The proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US may increase the demand for soybean oil in biofuel production [1]. Meals - Price Changes: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed various changes in spot, futures, basis, and spreads on May 14 compared with May 13. The import crushing margins also changed [2]. - Market Situation: The US soybean market is strong, while the Brazilian supply pressure is being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Price and Indicator Changes: On May 15, the futures prices of some pig contracts increased, and the spot prices were stable. There were also changes in indicators such as slaughter volume, prices of piglets and sows, and breeding profits [5]. - Market Outlook: The supply - demand relationship is stable, and the price is expected to remain volatile [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - Price and Indicator Changes: On May 15, the corn futures price increased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators. The corn starch market also had corresponding changes in prices and indicators [7]. - Market Situation: The corn market has strong bottom support in the short term and is expected to rise in the long term due to supply - demand changes [7]. Sugar - Price and Indicator Changes: On May 15, the futures and spot prices of sugar changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and import - related prices. The production and sales of sugar showed year - on - year growth [11]. - Market Outlook: The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic sugar price will remain volatile due to supply - demand factors [11]. Cotton - Price and Indicator Changes: On May 15, the cotton futures and spot prices changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and inventory - related indicators. The downstream industry showed some changes in production, sales, and inventory [12]. - Market Outlook: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate due to supply - demand and macro factors [12]. Eggs - Price and Indicator Changes: On May 15, the prices of egg contracts, egg - related products, and indicators such as egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit changed [14]. - Market Outlook: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize due to supply - demand conditions [14].