《能源化工》日报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Urea - Affected by export news, the domestic urea futures and spot markets weakened slightly. With the unclear export policy, downstream buyers were cautious. After the urea export - related meeting and the release of export details, the market trend is expected to become clear [9]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices declined due to the shift from macro to fundamental supply - side pressures. EIA data showed a significant increase in crude oil inventories, and OPEC +'s production increase plans raised concerns about supply over - capacity. In the short term, oil prices will be mainly in a high - level consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and consider long - volatility strategies in the options market [33]. Benzene and Styrene - In the short term, the benzene and styrene market may remain strong. Low inventory, tariff relaxation, and positive market sentiment support the price. However, high inventory in downstream products and unresolved supply - demand issues in the pure benzene raw material end may limit the upward space. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing high prices [20]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, short - term supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and demand is improving. However, high - profit and high - production situations may pose risks in the medium term. For PVC, short - term supply - demand contradictions are limited, but long - term over - capacity pressure remains due to the weak real - estate market. Short - term rebounds are expected, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [27]. Polyolefin - The spot trading of plastics is active. With increased maintenance in May and expected decline in imports from May to June, the supply pressure of plastics is gradually decreasing. For PP, although the supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, the output remains high. The cost - end price rise compresses profits. Attention should be paid to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [29]. Methanol - The inland methanol valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production increases, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - building period, and the import volume is expected to recover in May. The MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand, and the 09 - contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [36][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is tightening, and demand is supported. However, due to limited upward potential of oil prices and downstream losses, it may face pressure. For PTA, short - term supply - demand is tight, but downstream losses may lead to price corrections. For ethylene glycol, short - term support is strong due to expected inventory reduction. For short - fiber, inventory pressure is low, but the processing fee is under pressure. For bottle - grade chips, supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to the device operation under low processing fees [45]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On May 14, the 01 - contract closed at 1814 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.89% from May 13; the 05 - contract closed at 1900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.55%; the 09 - contract closed at 1886 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.58%; the methanol main - contract closed at 2365 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan or 3.23% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 14, the 01 - contract minus 05 - contract spread was - 86 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 34.85% from May 13; the 05 - contract minus 09 - contract spread was 14 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or - 57.58%; the 09 - contract minus 01 - contract spread was 72 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 27.27%; the UR - MA main - contract spread was - 551 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or - 11.76% [2]. Main Positions - On May 14, the long - position of top 20 was 151,890, down 13,513 or - 8.17% from May 13; the short - position of top 20 was 154,110, down 2,253 or - 1.44%; the long - short ratio was 0.99, down 0.07 or - 6.83%; the single - side trading volume was 375,951, up 76,712 or 25.64%; the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's warehouse receipt quantity was 7,352, up 303 or 4.30% [3]. Upstream Raw Materials - On May 14, the prices of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and fixed - bed production cost estimates remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 (Qinhuangdao) decreased by 2 yuan/ton or - 0.79% [4]. Spot Market Prices - On May 14, the spot prices of some regions such as Shandong (small - particle) decreased slightly, while the prices of some regions such as Shanxi (small - particle) remained unchanged. The inter - regional spreads also changed to varying degrees [5]. Basis - On May 14, the basis in Shandong decreased by 8 yuan or - 12.33% compared to May 13, while the basis in Shanxi and Henan increased [6]. Downstream Products - On May 14, the prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers remained unchanged [7]. Fertilizer Market - On May 14, the prices of most fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly or remained unchanged [8]. Supply - Demand Overview - The domestic urea daily output on May 16 was 199,200 tons, down 2,400 tons or - 1.19% from February 12; the weekly output remained unchanged; the factory inventory decreased by 248,400 tons or - 23.31%; the production enterprise order days increased by 0.47 days or 8.08% [9]. Crude Oil EIA Weekly Data - As of the week ending May 9, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.387 million barrels per day, up 0.02 million barrels per day from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 90.2%, up 1.2 percentage points; the commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.454 million barrels [11]. Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 15, Brent crude oil was 66.09 dollars per barrel, down 0.54 dollars or - 0.81% from May 14; WTI was 62.10 dollars per barrel, down 1.05 dollars or - 1.66%; SC was 484.60 yuan per barrel, down 2.90 yuan or - 0.59% [33]. Benzene and Styrene Upstream of Benzene and Styrene - On May 14, Brent crude oil (June) was 66.1 dollars per barrel, down 0.5 dollars or - 0.8%; CFR Japan naphtha was 590.0 dollars per ton, up 14.0 dollars or 2.4%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged; CFR South Korea pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene increased [17]. Benzene and Styrene Spot and Futures - On May 14, the benzene and styrene spot price in East China was 7,990.0 yuan per ton, up 325.0 yuan or 4.2%; the EB2506 and EB2507 futures prices also increased; the basis and monthly spread increased [18]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits of Benzene and Styrene - On May 14, the benzene and styrene CFR China was 952.0 dollars per ton, up 22.0 dollars or 2.4%; the FOB South Korea was 942.0 dollars per ton, up 22.0 dollars or 2.4%; the import profit decreased [19]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - From April 18 to April 25, the domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points or 1.1%; the benzene and styrene operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points or 1.7%; the integrated profit of benzene and styrene decreased significantly [20]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures of PVC and Caustic Soda - On May 14, the prices of some products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of East China ethylene - based PVC increased by 50.0 yuan or 1.0%; the prices of some futures contracts also changed [25]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda at East China ports decreased by 5.0 dollars or - 1.3% from February 8 to May 1; the export profit of PVC and caustic soda had incomplete data [25]. Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit - The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 percentage points or 1.3% compared to February 2; the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.1 percentage points or 1.4% [25]. Demand: Downstream Operating Rates - The operating rates of some downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased to varying degrees [26][27]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 1.5 tons or 3.7% from February 8 to May 1; the total social inventory increased by 0.6 tons or 1.5% [27]. Polyolefin PE and PP Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the L2505 and L2509 closing prices of PE increased by 1.95% and 2.11% respectively compared to May 13; the PP2505 and PP2509 closing prices increased by 1.13% and 1.68% respectively [29]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.77 percentage points or - 0.91%; the PP device operating rate increased by 5.36 percentage points or 7.2% [29]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.76 tons or - 8.27%; the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.20 tons or - 10.64%, while the PP trader inventory increased by 1.61 tons or 11.28% [29]. Methanol Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the MA2501, MA2505, and MA2509 closing prices increased by 3.02%, 4.08%, and 3.23% respectively compared to May 13; the regional spreads also changed [36]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.4 tons or 11.14%; the port inventory decreased by 7.8 tons or - 13.88% [36]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points or 1.64%; the downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 2.7 percentage points or 4.12% [36]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 14, the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 increased to varying degrees; the cash flows of some products also changed [45]. Upstream Prices - On May 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha changed to varying degrees [45]. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the CFR China PX price was 870 dollars per ton, up 3.2% from May 13; the PX - related spreads also changed [45]. PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the PTA East China spot price was 5,095 yuan per ton, up 79.0 yuan or 1.55% from May 13; the PTA - related spreads and processing fees also changed [45]. MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the MEG East China spot price was 4,635 yuan per ton, up 3.3% from May 13; the MEG - related spreads and import profits also changed [45]. Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - From April 30, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.1 percentage points; the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points; the polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points [45].