广发期货日评-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market is rising steadily with the support of weighted stocks, and different trading strategies are recommended for various futures contracts in different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, precious metal, shipping, steel, and others based on their market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - IF2506: The support below the index is stable. One can sell out-of-the-money put options to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell out-of-the-money call options with a strike price of 6400 on the September IM contract for a covered call strategy [2]. - IH2506: Weighted stocks are rising, driving the A-share market up [2]. - IC2506 and IM2506: Similar to IF2506, relevant option strategies are recommended [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506: Short - term treasury bond futures may be in a volatile state. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, focusing on the capital market and economic data. Curve strategies recommend a steepening trade. Attention should be paid to the challenges brought by the significant increase in government bond supply this week to the capital market and whether the capital market can remain loose, as well as the quality of high - frequency economic data [2]. Precious Metal Futures - AU2508: Gold is under short - term pressure, with support around $3200 (745 yuan). One can continue to hold the sold out - of - the - money gold call options with a strike price above 800. - AG2506: Silver prices are fluctuating narrowly in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan). An option straddle strategy can be tried [2]. Shipping Futures - EC2506 (European Line): The spot price has increased, and the main contract on the futures market has reached the daily limit. One can consider going long on the August contract or conducting positive spreads between August - October and June - October [2]. Steel Futures - RB2510: The spot market is stabilizing, and there are macro - level benefits. Unilateral operations should wait and see for now. For arbitrage, one can focus on the operation of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore Futures - I2509: The number of blast furnace overhauls has increased, and pig iron production may peak. It is in a range - bound state, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - J2505: Mainstream steel mills have proposed to lower the coke price. Coke prices have entered a new round of price cuts. A strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke is recommended [2]. - JM2505: The market auction has weakened again. Although coal mine production has increased slightly, the high inventory still has the possibility of decline, and coal prices may enter the bottom - hunting stage. A strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal is recommended [2]. Ferrosilicon Futures - SF2507: It has rebounded from the bottom, with the upper resistance level temporarily referring to 5800 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metal Futures - CU2506: U.S. inflation has slowed down more than expected, and copper prices have strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range is 77500 - 79500 [2]. - ZN2506: Tariffs are easing, and mine - end disturbances are boosting prices, but spot trading is average. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. - NI2506: The market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strong, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the fundamentals. The main contract reference range is 122000 - 128000 [2]. - SS2506: The market sentiment is strong, but there are still supply - demand contradictions. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [2]. - SM2506: The Sino - U.S. tariff conflict has eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved, driving the tin price to rebound. One can try short - selling in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - SC2507: The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories has suppressed the rebound of oil prices. Unilateral operations should wait and see. For options, one can capture opportunities for increased volatility during the range - bound period, and it is recommended to go long on volatility [2]. - UR2509: Inventory has decreased, but market trading sentiment has cooled down, and the center of the futures price has moved down. The reference range is around 1850 - 1950. For options, it is recommended to buy to expand volatility in the short term [2]. - PX2509: Supply - demand drivers are strong, but oil price support is limited, and further price increases are difficult. There is short - term callback pressure, but the drivers are still strong, and it should be treated as a high - level range - bound market. The PX9 - 1 positive spread should be exited, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities [2]. - TA2509: Similar to PX2509, there is short - term callback pressure, but supply - demand drivers are still strong, and it should be treated as a high - level range - bound market. The TA9 - 1 positive spread should be exited, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. PTA should be overweighted in the industrial chain [2]. - PF2506: Short - term drivers are weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the futures market is low, but there is no short - term recovery driver [2]. - PR2506: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand the margin at the lower end of the range [2]. - EG2509: A large ethylene glycol plant has shut down temporarily, and polyester production is at a high level. There is strong support below the price. One can sell put option EG2509 - P - 4250 and conduct a positive spread on EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. - EB2506: Low inventory provides flexibility. Macro - level benefits and spot support have driven the futures price to rebound significantly. It may still be strong in the short term, and participation should be cautious [2]. - 6055HS (Caustic Soda): The spot market is strong. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes of caustic soda plants. It is recommended to mainly participate in short - selling at high levels, and pay attention to the resistance around 2550 for near - month contracts [2]. - V2509 (PVC): Tariffs have released positive signals. In the short term, there are no further supply - demand contradictions, and the futures price has rebounded. One should wait and see for now and mainly participate in short - selling at high levels in the medium term [2]. - BR2506 (Synthetic Rubber): A butadiene plant has shut down temporarily, and BR has continued to rise significantly. A positive spread between BR2507 and BR2509 is recommended at low prices [2]. - LLDPE2509: Market sentiment is high, and overall trading is good. It is in a volatile state [2]. - PP2509: Tariffs have eased more than expected. Attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking of downstream enterprises. It is in a volatile state [2]. Agricultural Product Futures - M2509: Attention should be paid to the performance around 2900 [2]. - RM509: The May supply - demand balance sheet is favorable, and U.S. soybeans are strengthening [2]. - FH2509: Attention should be paid to the slaughter performance of fattened pigs. The weight - reduction space of large - scale pig farms is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13800 - 14500 [2]. - C2507: The spot price is temporarily stable, and the corn price is in an oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around 2330 [2]. - P2509/Y2509/01509: The U.S. plans to extend the 45Z policy, which is beneficial to the industrial demand for U.S. soybean oil. P2509 is expected to rebound to 8300 [2]. - SR2509: The data from late April in Brazil is favorable. One can either wait and see or conduct short - selling on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The Sino - U.S. trade war has eased. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 13500 - 13700 [2]. - JD2506: The spot price is oscillating at a low level. Short positions in the June and July contracts should be closed at low prices, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally [2]. - AP2510: There is a sentiment of holding back high - quality apples to support prices. The main contract is trading around 7700 [2]. - CJ2509: The spot price has changed little, and the jujube price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to trade around 9000 in the short term [2]. - PK2510: The market price is oscillating steadily. The main contract is trading around 8200 [2]. - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. One can consider participating in positive spreads between the 6th and 9th or 7th and 9th contracts [2]. Special Commodity Futures - FG2509: Production and sales are strong, but market sentiment is pessimistic, and the futures price is fluctuating. One should observe whether the 09 contract can break through the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The Sino - U.S. tariff conflict has eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved, boosting the rubber price. The operating range refers to 14500 - 15500. One can try short - selling at the upper end of the range [2]. - Si2506: The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, and the futures price has strengthened due to short - covering. It is at the bottom, and one can gradually pay attention to small - scale long - buying opportunities [2]. - PS2506: It continues the trend of being weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term, rising in an oscillating manner. Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to whether the price structure will change to contango [2]. - LC2507: The futures price has increased significantly, but the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 62,000 - 66,000 [2].