合成橡胶产业日报-20250515

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly last week, and some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 12,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 22,783, a decrease of 3,722. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 7,320 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 12,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 66.09 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.54 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 590 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China butadiene price is 1070 US dollars/ton. WTI crude oil is 63.15 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.52 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 147,800 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 69.35%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,900 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, unchanged. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 74.74%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 173 yuan/ton, unchanged. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,600 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 27,650 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 42.52 days, a decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.09 days, a decrease of 0.82 days [2] Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period (May 7, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance during the period, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most maintenance enterprises gradually resumed production around May 6. In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 19% decrease from March and a 9.4% increase from 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2]