瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250515

Report Summary - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Wang Fuhui - Futures Qualification Number: F03123381 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. There was a slight rebound today with increased trading volume, showing obvious short - term bottom signs. It is recommended to appropriately buy short - term long positions on dips and adopt a high - selling strategy for medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,410 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the position of the main contract was 124,014 lots, down 22,511 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,944 lots, down 5,205 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX were 66,433 lots, down 98 lots; the spread between the June - July contracts was - 30, up 5 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 11,680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 335,750 tons per month, up 46,400 tons; industrial silicon social inventory was 596,000 tons per week, down 7,000 tons; industrial silicon imports were 2,211.36 tons per month, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon exports were 52,919.65 tons per month, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 39,500 tons, down 100 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 60.05%, down 0.06 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.655 million tons, up 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Tuori Xineng (002218.SZ) stated on May 8 that the company currently has self - owned power stations with a capacity of over 500MW and 300MW of centralized photovoltaic power stations and some industrial and commercial distributed projects under construction. The Lianzhou Hongrisheng 200MW comprehensive utilization photovoltaic power station project is in progress, and the Xi'an industrial park construction project is in the interior decoration stage [2] 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, large factories have stable operations, small and medium - sized enterprises have low willingness to start, and the start - up in the southwest region remains low with delayed or cancelled restart plans. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry's operating rate is low due to the industry self - regulatory agreement, the terminal rush - installation demand has cooled, the supply - demand imbalance in the silicon material link has intensified, and the procurement enthusiasm for industrial silicon has declined. The price of organic silicon has declined again, and related enterprises have further reduced production. The aluminum alloy industry has mediocre performance, with weak export demand, further restricting the growth of industrial silicon demand [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]