Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market has a weak overall outlook. The fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and high inventory. The downstream processing enterprises have a low acceptance of the current price and the actual market transactions are light. The industry inventory is still high and the lithium ore price continues to fall, weakening the cost - side support. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 64,120 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 40,116 hands, down 21,415 hands; the position of the main contract was 289,360 hands, up 12,404 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts was - 1,020 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 36,716 hands/ton, up 272 hands [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 680 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 753 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,855 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume was 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons; the monthly export volume was 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate was 50%, up 8%; the monthly production of power batteries was 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Downstream and Application Situation: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 0%, down 48%; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 0%, down 57%; the monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 42.74%, up 1.58%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 21.29%, up 0.07%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying was 19.10%, up 0.21% [2]. - Option Situation: The total subscription position was 118,709 contracts, up 11,597 contracts; the total put position was 45,107 contracts, up 3,049 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position was 38%, down 1.2675%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.26%, up 0.0196% [2]. 2. Industry News - The International Energy Agency released the "Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025" report on May 14. It is expected that the global electric vehicle sales will exceed 20 million in 2025, accounting for more than a quarter of the total new - car sales. In 2024, the global electric vehicle sales reached 17 million, a year - on - year increase of about 25%, accounting for more than 20% of the global automobile market for the first time. In the first quarter of 2025, the global electric vehicle sales increased by 35% year - on - year. The Chinese market continued to lead, with electric vehicle sales exceeding 11 million in 2024, accounting for nearly half of the domestic new - car sales. Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America also grew rapidly, with an annual increase of more than 60%. If countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments as scheduled, electric vehicles will account for more than 40% of global new - car sales by 2030 [2]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil will be "fully operational" by December 2026 [2]. - In April, the sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 118.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.7% [2]. - In April, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 54.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 52.8%. From January to April, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries was 184.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.8% [2]. 3. Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technical Analysis: On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 - axis and the red bars were converging [2]. - Fundamental Analysis: Driven by the macro - sentiment, the spot price of lithium carbonate rebounded. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises were cautious and the actual market transactions were light. The industry inventory was high and the lithium ore price fell, weakening the cost - side support [2].
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250515
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-15 08:50