汇丰：中美贸易谈判：取得突破性进展，但仍需继续谈判

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the trade talks between China and the US, suggesting potential upside risks for growth due to the rollback of tariffs [6][8]. Core Insights - The recent high-level trade talks in Geneva resulted in a significant breakthrough, with both sides agreeing to a consultation mechanism for trade and economic issues, reflecting a constructive tone and mutual respect [2][3]. - The US will roll back tariffs on China to 10% for 90 days, while China will also reduce its tariffs to 10% for the same period, which is expected to alleviate the burden on businesses affected by previous tariffs [6][7]. - The restoration of dialogue channels and establishment of key contact points between both countries is crucial for facilitating further discussions and reducing the risk of trade escalations [9]. Summary by Sections Trade Talks Overview - The first set of high-level trade talks since the start of Trump 2.0 took place on May 10-11, 2025, in Geneva, involving key officials from both sides [2]. - A joint statement was issued on May 12, highlighting the agreement on a consultation mechanism for trade and economic issues [2][3]. Tariff Adjustments - Both countries agreed to a 90-day pause with a rollback in tariffs, with China facing an additional 30% tariff and the US facing 10% [6]. - The rollback of tariffs is expected to provide relief to businesses that have been impacted by reciprocal tariffs since April 9, 2025 [4][6]. Economic Implications - The additional 30% tariffs could potentially drag China's GDP down by approximately 0.9 percentage points, but the rollback presents upside risks for growth if successfully implemented [8]. - Future discussions may extend beyond trade, indicating that a comprehensive agreement may require further negotiations [8].