纯碱、玻璃日报-20250516

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2024 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash futures may have a short - term small - scale rebound in May but lack continuous upward momentum. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply, and prices are expected to enter a downward channel again in mid - to - late May [8]. - The cost support of float glass futures prices may appear in the short term, and the short - term market has a certain support due to the expectation of rush - to - export. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is the key factor for the subsequent trend [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Soda ash futures: On May 15, the main soda ash futures SA509 maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 1330 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase and an increase of 82,994 lots in positions [7]. - Soda ash spot: Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. The weekly output in the week of May 15 fell to 677,700 tons, a decrease of 8.52%; the weekly operating load rate dropped to 83%. As of May 8, the shipment volume was 711,700 tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous period. As of May 15, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy - soda ash remained at 880,000 tons [8]. - Glass futures: The FG509 contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton on May 16, down 1 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease [7]. - Glass market: The overall profit of the float glass production industry increased slightly. Production remained stable, demand was relatively flat, downstream procurement was conservative, and inventory accumulated. The futures price was approaching the production cost line [9][10]. 2. Industry News - China and the US will maintain communication on economic and trade concerns based on the consensus of the Geneva talks [11]. - The domestic float glass market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations, and trading was average. Different regions had different price trends [11]. - The baking soda market in Henan was operating steadily with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda was estimated at 1200 - 1260 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market prices, and flat glass production [13][19][21]