大越期货尿素早报-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with high supply and marginal improvement in agricultural demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply - side and the marginal changes in demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has rebounded recently. Supply: The operating rate remains high and new production capacity is coming on - stream, with daily production expected to stay high, and inventory has rapidly increased again after a decline from a high level. Demand: In industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly declined and inventory has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and industrial demand is weak. Agricultural demand has shown marginal improvement. There are many rumors about recent export policies, but no official confirmation. The spot price of the deliverable is 1930 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 44, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.9 million tons (-11.1), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with high daily production, increasing inventory again, a decline in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: Expectations of export policy changes and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [5]. - Bearish Factors: High operating rate and daily production, increasing inventory again, and weak industrial demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1930 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1886 | -11 | Warehouse Receipt | 7352 | 303 | | Shandong Spot | 1950 | 0 | Basis | 44 | 11 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 950 | -248 | | Henan Spot | 1930 | 0 | UR01 | 1814 | 16 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 817 | -248 | | FOB China | 2575 | | UR05 | 1900 | -30 | UR Port Inventory | 133 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1886 | -11 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]