白糖早报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Dataro expects a global surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season; Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; StoneX anticipates Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 season, up from 40.2 million tons in the 24/25 season [4]. - Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been raised from 12% to 20%, approaching the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar imports [4]. - As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons; the sales ratio was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 344 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price; as of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main positions are long, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is unclear [4]. - International sugar prices have fallen below 18 cents again. Domestic sugar sales in April were good, and spot prices were firm. The domestic and foreign futures trends have been relatively synchronized recently. The main SR2509 contract generally fluctuates between 5800 - 6000, and investors can consider buying at the lower end of this range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information is provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions' forecasts show an increase in global sugar supply in the 25/26 season. China has adjusted import tariffs, and domestic production, sales, and import data in the 24/25 season show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 6230, and the basis for the 09 contract is 344, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of April 2025, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons, which is a bullish factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Main Positions: The positions are long, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish factor [4]. - Expectations: International sugar prices have fallen, while domestic sugar sales are good and spot prices are firm. The domestic and foreign futures trends are synchronized, and the main SR2509 contract fluctuates in a certain range, suggesting buying at the lower end [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Dataro expects a global surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; StoneX anticipates Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 season, up from 40.2 million tons in the 24/25 season [4]. - Domestic Supply and Demand Data: As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons; the sales ratio was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: USDA global and domestic (Brick and Rural Ministry) supply and demand balance sheets show data on sugar production, consumption, inventory, etc. over multiple years [34][36][39]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the content.