大越期货纯碱早报-20250516

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from the high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants has declined but remains at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,340 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,330 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 171.20 million tons, an increase of 0.63% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Market: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is declining from the high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the previous value. The main basis is 10 yuan [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Profit: The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - alkali process in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali process in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - Capacity and Output: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 74.07 million tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 40.79 million tons, and the output has declined from the historical high [16][18]. - Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there are continuous new production capacity plans for soda ash. The planned new production capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025 (with 60 million tons actually put into production) [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash is 55.07% [21]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the production has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.20 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.33 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [31].