大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250516

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: May 16, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by factors such as the end of the agricultural film season, the rush - work wave of foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments, and a neutral - to - high inventory in the industry chain. For PP, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is also a rush - work wave of foreign - trade enterprises [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. The central bank signaled "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" on April 28, and on May 12, China announced important consensus from the Sino - US talks and the suspension or cancellation of tariffs since April. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and more factories are shutting down. With tariff adjustments, there is a rush - work wave among foreign - trade enterprises. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 61, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 636,000 tons (+169,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the Sino - US talks and other factors, it is predicted that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launches and weak crude oil [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. The central bank's signal and the Sino - US talks' results are the same. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work wave among foreign - trade enterprises after tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 157, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, showing a bullish sign [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 676,000 tons (+112,000 tons), which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [6] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given the Sino - US talks and other factors, it is predicted that PP will fluctuate today [6] - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7400 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7339 (up 152), the basis is 61 (down 152), the LLDPE import price is 822 (unchanged), and the import - converted price is 7276 (unchanged). The LLDPE warehouse receipt quantity is 4989 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 584,000 tons (down 52,000 tons), and the PE social inventory is 618,000 tons (up 6,000 tons) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7350 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7193 (up 119), the basis is 157 (down 119), the PP import price is 845 (unchanged), and the import - converted price is 7475 (unchanged). The PP warehouse receipt quantity is 4356 (up 288), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 604,000 tons (down 72,000 tons), and the PP social inventory is 273,000 tons (up 13,000 tons) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]