建信期货钢材日评-20250516

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 16, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Currently, the production of the five major steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has dropped from its peak. However, there are multi-dimensional signs of recovery in the real estate sector, and the steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries generally maintains a high growth trend. Macroscopically, the Sino-US tariffs have eased, increasing the expectation of rushed exports and recovering the expectation of downstream demand. In the future, the fundamental contradictions of rebar and hot-rolled coils are minor, market sentiment has improved, and the futures prices are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions Review - Futures Market: On May 15, the main futures contracts 2510 of rebar and hot-rolled coils oscillated with a slightly stronger trend, while the main futures contract 2507 of stainless steel opened high and closed low. The closing prices of RB2510, HC2510, and SS2507 were 3118 yuan/ton, 3260 yuan/ton, and 12995 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.39%, 0.46%, and -0.23% [5]. - Spot Market: In the spot market on May 15, the rebar prices in most regions showed an upward trend, with price increases ranging from 10 to 20 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil prices also showed an upward trend in some regions, with price increases of 10 or 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2510 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged upwards, and the daily MACD red bars both expanded [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Production and Inventory Data: In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.205 million tons (a 0.2% increase compared to the previous period); 19.9 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.99 million tons (a 1.6% increase compared to the previous period); and 20.83 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.083 million tons (an 8.4% decrease compared to the previous period). The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous ten-day period [11]. - Raw Material Inventory and Cost: As of May 15, the total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills (new caliber) was 27.1467 million tons, a decrease of 443,300 tons compared to the previous period. The average tax-free hot metal cost of steel mills was 2376 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [11]. - Technological Breakthrough: The first domestic steel for deep-drawn battery shells suitable for the 40160 type (40mm in diameter × 160mm in height) large cylindrical battery successfully rolled off the production line at the No. 2 continuous annealing production line of Magang Hefei Company, marking a major technological breakthrough in the new energy battery material field [11]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices and the May contracts [13][15][18][24][27][31]