大越期货燃料油早报-20250516

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be quite tight before June due to the continuous closure of the east - west arbitrage window, while the downstream bunker fuel demand (especially at the terminal direct supply end) has limited support. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened driven by the seasonal increase in power generation demand and strong buying in the downstream bunker fuel market [3]. - Overnight crude oil continued to decline, while fuel oil was slightly stronger than crude oil due to short - term fundamental support and showed obvious resistance to decline. It is expected to continue this performance today. FU2507 is expected to operate in the range of 2980 - 3040, and LU2507 in the range of 3585 - 3640 [3]. - The market is driven by the combination of the uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of May 14 was 24.909 billion barrels, an increase of 780 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - The price of fuel oil is running near the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, showing a neutral trend [3]. - High - sulfur main positions are long positions with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish; low - sulfur main positions are short positions with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 159 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 236 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Likely Positives: OPEC+ additional production cuts are extended, but implementation needs to be tracked; China's import quota is released [4]. - Likely Negatives: The reduction in supply needs further observation, and demand is neutral; there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 433.89 US dollars/ton, and the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 526.5 US dollars/ton [3]. - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 3048, and the current value is 3026, a decrease of 22 or 0.72%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3617, and the current value is 3639, an increase of 22 or 0.61% [5]. - The previous value of the basis of FU was 166, and the current value is 159, a decrease of 8 or 4.64%. The previous value of the basis of LU was 212, and the current value is 236, an increase of 24 or 11.41% [5]. - The previous value of the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 519.00 US dollars/ton, and the current value is 508.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.00 or 2.12%. The previous value of the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 520.00 US dollars/ton, and the current value is 510.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.00 or 1.92% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on February 26 was 27.969 billion barrels, a decrease of 200 million barrels; on March 5, it was 28.319 billion barrels, an increase of 350 million barrels; on March 12, it was 28.309 billion barrels, a decrease of 100 million barrels; on March 19, it was 28.549 billion barrels, an increase of 240 million barrels; on March 26, it was 28.019 billion barrels, a decrease of 530 million barrels; on April 2, it was 26.669 billion barrels, a decrease of 1.35 billion barrels; on April 9, it was 27.109 billion barrels, an increase of 440 million barrels; on April 16, it was 25.989 billion barrels, a decrease of 1.12 billion barrels; on April 23, it was 25.989 billion barrels, with no change; on April 30, it was 23.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 2.26 billion barrels; on May 7, it was 24.129 billion barrels, an increase of 400 million barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data No specific analysis of spread data is provided, only a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread is shown [12].