大越期货豆粕早报-20250516

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 豆粕: The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2860 and 2920. Despite technical support and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war and US soybean - growing weather, the overall pattern is weakly oscillating due to factors like increased imports of Brazilian soybeans and South American soybean harvest expectations [8][9]. - 大豆: The A2507 contract is likely to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. Influenced by the US soybean market and import volumes, the domestic soybean market is also in a state of weak oscillation, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans but suppressed by import volumes and production expectations [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No specific daily hints are provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation has made significant progress. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on planting and the tariff war [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean market has returned to an oscillating pattern, showing a situation of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly oscillating pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic soybean meal at oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war have caused the soybean meal market to return to an oscillating state, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the China - US tariff war [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish for Soybean Meal: Lower - than - expected short - term imports of soybeans in China, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish for Soybean Meal: The volume of imported soybeans in China rebounded to a high in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues [14]. - Bullish for Soybeans: The strong oscillation of US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [15]. - Bearish for Soybeans: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2960, with a basis of 37, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 10.12 tons, a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 12, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 534.91 tons, a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main players have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main players have increased, and the capital has flowed in [11]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Global: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, production, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - Domestic: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, production, and import volume increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 3.7 Planting and Harvesting Progress - Argentina (2023/24): The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 is presented, with the sowing progress gradually increasing from December 2023 to January 2024 and the harvesting progress increasing from April to June 2024 [34]. - US (2024): The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 are provided, including the sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and harvesting rate at different times [35][36][37][38]. - Brazil (2024/25): The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 is shown, with the planting rate increasing from November 2024 to January 2025 and the harvesting rate increasing from February to May 2025 [39][40]. - Argentina (2024/25): The planting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2024/25 is presented, with the planting rate increasing from November 2024 to January 2025 [41]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from October 2024 to April 2025 show that the US soybean harvest area, yield, production, and other indicators have changed slightly, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also been adjusted [42]. 3.9 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [43]. - The soybean inventory at oil mills rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory dropped to a low level [45]. - The unfulfilled contracts at oil mills continued to increase, indicating an increase in stocking demand [47]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills rebounded from a low level, and the soybean meal production in April decreased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread narrowed slightly [51]. - The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [53]. - The prices of pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - farming profit decreased slightly [59].