大越期货菜粕早报-20250516

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2470 - 2530. It is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. - The rapeseed meal market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the market, but the lack of a tariff on Canadian rapeseed limits the upside. The basis is at a high - level discount, inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have increased while funds have flowed out [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market tightening and demand rising. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production is offset by an increase in Russian production, geopolitical risks still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: An increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March, and uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 6th to May 15th are presented, showing that the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract oscillates downward [13]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week and 20% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory at oil mills has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed meal inventory has returned to a low level [9][29]. - Supply and Demand Balance: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [24][25]. - Import Situation: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has bottomed out and rebounded [26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, while funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound trading, influenced by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and soybean meal trends [9].