广发早知道：汇总版-20250516

1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume oscillation at the upper pressure level. The futures of stock index, bonds, and precious metals have different trends affected by factors such as policies, economic data, and geopolitical situations. In the commodity market, different metals and agricultural products also show various trends based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external policies [2][3][5][7] - The market sentiment of different varieties is affected by multiple factors, including domestic and foreign policies, economic data, and geopolitical situations. For example, the reduction of tariffs has a certain impact on the market, and the inflation and consumption data in the United States affect the expectations of the Fed's monetary policy [3][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The index is at the upper pressure level and enters a shrinking - volume oscillation. The A - share market declined on May 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68%. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis was in a state of backwardation. The current index has stable support below and large pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options at the support level to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with an exercise price of 6400 in September for a covered call strategy [2][3][4] - Treasury Bond Futures: After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the capital market is stable. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital market is affected by the supply of government bonds and remains stable. The short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the capital market and economic data [5][6] Precious Metals - The weak inflation and consumption data in the United States boost the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Precious metals showed a V - shaped rebound after a sharp decline. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and the demand of global central banks and financial institutions for gold still supports the price. In the short term, the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts and the improvement of market expectations limit the upward space of gold prices. Silver follows the trend of gold, and its price is supported at $32. It is recommended to hold short - value gold call options [9][10] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures market has released the upward sentiment caused by the tariff war. The subsequent market may adjust. It is necessary to pay close attention to the price changes in the spot market. It is expected to show an oscillating upward trend. It is recommended to consider the 6 - 10 and 8 - 10 positive spreads [12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The spot trading is average. The "strong reality" of copper needs to be observed for its sustainability. The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 77500 - 79500 [12][17] - Zinc: The easing of tariffs and mine disturbances boost the price, but the spot trading is average. The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 23500 [17][21] - Tin: The improvement of macro - sentiment drives the rebound of tin prices. It is recommended to try shorting in the range of 265000 - 270000, paying attention to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [21][24] - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is improved, but the medium - term supply is still loose. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. It is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 122000 - 128000 [25][27] - Stainless Steel: The macro - situation is improved, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to refer to the range of 12600 - 13200 [28][30] - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term macro situation is improved, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to go short on rebounds, referring to the range of 62000 - 66000 [30][33] Black Metals - Steel: The spot price is stable, and the macro - level is favorable. The apparent demand is repaired, and the inventory is decreasing. The export order is improving after the tariff reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure range of the October contract for rebar (3200 - 3250) and hot - rolled coil (3300 - 3400) [35][36] - Iron Ore: The hot - metal output is at a high level and declining, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, paying attention to the terminal demand and overseas mine shipments [37][40] - Coke: The mainstream steel mills have proposed to reduce the coke price. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke and pay attention to the signal of the coke price bottoming out [41][42] - Coking Coal: The market auction is weak again, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal and pay attention to the signal of the coal price bottoming out [43][45] - Silicon Iron: The production reduction range will expand, and the supply - demand relationship will improve marginally. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound [46][48] - Manganese Silicon: The production and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. It is expected that the price will oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [49][52] Agricultural Products - Meal: The price of soybean meal in the domestic spot market has decreased. The uncertainty of the US bio - diesel obligation blending volume target drags down the price of US soybeans. The domestic supply is expected to continue to recover. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 [53][56] - Pigs: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply of large - scale pig farms has limited room for weight reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the second - fattening pigs' slaughter [57] - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating. The short - term market is stable, and the long - term trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [58][60] - Sugar: The international raw sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the domestic sugar price follows. The Brazilian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be abundant. The domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5800 - 5950 [61]