花旗：中国经济 - 回归解放前基线，上调25年GDP增长预期至4.7%

Investment Rating - The report reverts the GDP forecast for 2025E to 4.7% from 4.2%, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The Phase 1.5 Deal between the US and China is expected to lead to further tariff reductions, which may enhance trade relations and economic growth [3][4]. - The urgency for significant stimulus measures has decreased, with expectations of only minor adjustments in policy rates and reserve requirement ratios [1][5]. - The report anticipates a material increase in China's purchases of US goods, aligning with the Phase 1 Deal, and suggests that the effective US tariff rate on China could drop from approximately 39% to around 20% within three months [3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth forecast for China has been revised up to 4.7% YoY for 2025E, reflecting improved trade conditions [4][6]. - Export growth for Q2 2025 is projected at 3.6% YoY, a significant increase from the previous forecast of -6.5% [4][6]. Policy Outlook - With trade tensions easing, the report suggests that major fiscal budget revisions are unlikely, and any future support will likely come from policy banks or targeted measures [5][6]. - The anticipated monetary policy adjustments include a 10 basis points cut in the policy rate and a 50 basis points cut in the reserve requirement ratio in the second half of 2025 [1][5]. Trade Relations - The report highlights the potential for the US and China to engage in discussions regarding tariff reductions, particularly concerning the 20% fentanyl tariff, which may be paused or removed in the near term [3][4]. - The easing of tariffs is expected to facilitate a more favorable environment for US businesses in China, especially in the services sector [3][4].