Workflow
摩根士丹利：人工智能供应链-Blackwell 订单保持稳定，AI 个人电脑推出或延迟
摩根·2025-05-16 05:29

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" industry view for the AI supply chain sector [6]. Core Insights - There are no cuts to NVIDIA's CoWoS-L booking, with a forecast of 390k units for 2025, despite speculation of reductions to 340-350k units [3][11]. - The newly announced AI company Humain in Saudi Arabia has a project size of US10billiontodeploy500megawattsofAIcomputecapacityoverfiveyears,withNVIDIA′sGB300GraceBlackwellAIsupercomputerbeingakeycomponent[2].−ThereportanticipatesstrongdemandforNVIDIA′schips,withexpectedconsumptionof160kCoWoS−Lin1H25andover100kin3Q25,whileassemblyissuesremainaconcern[3][19].SummarybySectionsAISupplyChainOverview−TheAIsupplychainisexperiencingrobustdemand,particularlyforNVIDIA′sCoWoS−Lchips,withnoexpectedcutsinbookings[3][11].−Thereporthighlightstheimportanceofassemblycapabilitiesasapotentialbottleneckinmeetingdemand[19].MarketDevelopments−TheestablishmentofHumaininSaudiArabiasignifiesastrategicinvestmentinAIinfrastructure,withatotalprojectsizeofUS10 billion to deploy 500 megawatts of AI compute capacity over five years, with NVIDIA's GB300 Grace Blackwell AI supercomputer being a key component [2]. - The report anticipates strong demand for NVIDIA's chips, with expected consumption of 160k CoWoS-L in 1H25 and over 100k in 3Q25, while assembly issues remain a concern [3][19]. Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain Overview - The AI supply chain is experiencing robust demand, particularly for NVIDIA's CoWoS-L chips, with no expected cuts in bookings [3][11]. - The report highlights the importance of assembly capabilities as a potential bottleneck in meeting demand [19]. Market Developments - The establishment of Humain in Saudi Arabia signifies a strategic investment in AI infrastructure, with a total project size of US10 billion [2]. - The upcoming Computex event is expected to showcase significant developments, although the launch of NVIDIA/MediaTek's WoA AI PC chip may be delayed due to software support requirements [5][31]. Chip Production and Forecasts - TSMC is projected to produce 5.1 million chips in 2025, with a breakdown of shipments expected for various NVIDIA products [9][19]. - The report outlines a detailed forecast for CoWoS bookings, with specific allocations for NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, indicating a strong growth trajectory for AI semiconductors [12][14]. Capital Expenditure Trends - The report notes that US AI capital expenditure remains strong, with expectations of continued investment from major cloud service providers, potentially reaching around US160billioninAIserverTAMfor2025[36].−ThetopfourUShyperscalersareforecastedtogenerateUS160 billion in AI server TAM for 2025 [36]. - The top four US hyperscalers are forecasted to generate US550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [36][45].