瑞银：美国交通运输业周度追踪-5 月下旬进口量前景疲软

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weakening trend in U.S. container imports, suggesting a cautious outlook for the transportation services sector [7][4]. Core Insights - The modified deadweight tonnage (MDWT) metric, which tracks container imports, showed a 3% decline week-over-week, with a significant 10% drop in container imports compared to the previous week [3][9]. - Year-over-year, total U.S. containership MDWT decreased by 15% in Week 19, indicating a potential slowdown in domestic freight activity [3][4]. - The Port of Los Angeles forecasts a 16% year-over-year decline in port volumes for May, reflecting a broader trend of weakening import volumes [4][14]. - Container exits from China and Hong Kong remain strong, with a slight decline of 1.5% week-over-week, but still close to record levels [5][18]. - Exits from other Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, have increased by approximately 8% year-over-year, indicating a potential shift in sourcing patterns [18][21]. Summary by Sections U.S. Container Imports - The 4-week moving average (MA) of U.S. container imports was 6.2 million MDWT, down from 6.4 million MDWT in the previous week, but still above the local trough of 5.9 million MDWT in mid-April [9][12]. - The report highlights the correlation between MDWT and official TEU import data, with an r-squared value of 94%, suggesting that MDWT is a reliable early indicator of import activity [12][8]. Port of Los Angeles - The Port of Los Angeles reported a 1.5% year-over-year increase in total port volume for the four weeks ending May 10, but anticipates a decline in the coming weeks [4][14]. - The projected decline in TEU volume could be influenced by inventory levels and the timing of tariff reductions from China [4][14]. China and Other Asian Exits - Freight exiting China and Hong Kong ports was approximately 52 million MDWT, reflecting a strong exit rate despite a slight week-over-week decline [5][18]. - The report notes that sourcing shifts from China to other Asian countries may occur, with MDWT exits from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand increasing significantly [18][21].