生猪市场周报：生猪价格下跌，关注二育动态-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly. In the short - term, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state. The price may continue to be under pressure, but continuous price drops may cause farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the decline. It is recommended that short positions be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, and hold them with a light position while setting stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [6]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, farmers' slaughter increased slightly, with stable slaughter weight. The risk of second - fattening increased, and the mid - term supply pressure is expected to rise. On the demand side, terminal demand declined, but there may be a short - term increase in demand due to Dragon Boat Festival stocking. Overall, short - term supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions can be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, hold them with a light position, and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price Trend: Futures prices first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [10]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: The net short position decreased, and there were 696 futures warehouse receipts, 9 less than last week [12][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Base Difference: The base difference of the May live pig contract was 570 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 1240 yuan/ton [20]. - Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets: The national average price of live pigs was 14.83 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from last week and 0.80% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.69 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from last week and 0.51% from last month [27]. - Prices of Pork and Sows: The national average price of pork was 25.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - Pig - grain Ratio: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - Sow Inventory: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, 270,000 less than last month. In April, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month [40]. - Live Pig Inventory: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month [43]. - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In April, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained unchanged from last week [46]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits: As of May 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was 48.2 yuan/head, down 10.26 yuan/head from last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 80.66 yuan/head, down 3.67 yuan/head from last week. The poultry farming profit was - 0.16 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.14 yuan/head week - on - week [51]. 3.3.3. Domestic Situation - Pork Imports: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but at a historically low level [56]. 3.3.4. Substitute Situation - White - striped Chicken Price and Fat - to - Standard Price Difference: As of the week of May 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of May 8, the national average fat - to - standard price difference of live pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week [60]. 3.3.5. Feed Situation - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of May 16, the spot price of soybean meal was 3115.71 yuan/ton, down 196.58 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, up 11.37 yuan/ton from the previous week [65]. - Feed Index and Price: As of May 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 937.19, down 1.36% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [68]. - Feed Output: As of March 2025, the monthly feed output was 27.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.428 million tons [72]. 3.3.6. CPI Situation - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the same decline rate as last month [75]. 3.3.7. Downstream Situation - Slaughtering Enterprises: In the 20th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 28.11%, down 0.43 percentage points from last week. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, up 0.01% from last week [78]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.63 million, up 40.7% from last month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [83]. 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [84].