Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly chart, with a weekly decline of 1.94% and an amplitude of 6.13%. The closing price of the main contract was 61,800 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroscopically, the State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle. Fundamentally, overseas lithium mines' price - holding sentiment weakened, and lithium ore transaction prices declined. The supply was excessive with high inventory due to insufficient production cuts by domestic smelters and arriving imported lithium carbonate. The demand was weak as downstream battery material processing enterprises had sufficient inventory and were cautious in purchasing [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market remained in a situation of excessive supply with high - level industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position under a weak and volatile trend and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly chart, with a closing price of 61,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%, and an amplitude of 6.13% [5]. - Macro - situation: The State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle to promote stable economic development [5]. - Fundamentals: Overseas lithium mines' price - holding sentiment weakened, lithium ore prices declined. Supply was excessive with high inventory, and demand was weak [5]. - Strategy: Trade with a light position under a weak and volatile trend and control risks [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of May 16, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 61,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,220 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton [6]. - Spot Price: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 470 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Upstream Market - Lithium Concentrate: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 753 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.2132, a weekly decline of 0.31% [19]. - Lithium Mica: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,811 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 83 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 110 yuan/ton [24]. 4. Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons (47.03%) from February, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%. The monthly output was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons (20.99%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 14.78%. The monthly export volume was 220.031 tons, a decrease of 197.1 tons (47.25%) from February, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.68%. The monthly start - up rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [29]. 5. Downstream Situation - Six - Fluorophosphate Lithium: As of May 16, 2025, the average price was 55,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 156,900 tons, an increase of 22,870 tons (17.06%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 47.39% [32]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 31,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17,500 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of cathode materials was 178,600 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 30.56%. The monthly start - up rate was 57%, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [38]. - Ternary Materials: As of the latest data, the prices of type 811, 622, and 523 remained stable. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 54,050 tons, an increase of 9,130 tons (20.33%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 8.86%. The monthly start - up rate was 48%, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [41]. - Lithium Manganate: As of the latest data, the average price was 29,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 9,670 tons, an increase of 870 tons (9.89%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 49.92% [45]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 7,170 tons, an increase of 880 tons (13.99%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 9.47% [48]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of April 2025, the penetration rate was 42.74%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 10.36%. The monthly output was 1,251,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; the sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The cumulative export volume was 642,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 52.49% [50][55]. 6. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying was 0.26, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [58].
碳酸锂市场周报：供给偏多库存高位，碳酸锂或承压运行-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 08:54