瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250516

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading center of the domestic urea spot market moved up, boosting market sentiment and leading downstream to increase replenishment. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1830 - 1860 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - Recently, some domestic urea plants have shut down, reducing daily output. Next week, no plants are planned to shut down, and 3 shut - down plants will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of increased output is high. Agricultural demand is gradually rising, and port - collection demand will increase under the influence of export news. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the summer fertilizer production in some areas will gradually end. It is expected that the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may decline slightly in the short term. This week, urea enterprise inventories decreased significantly. Affected by export news, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and some domestic industrial and agricultural downstream increased procurement, with some goods flowing to ports, helping factory inventories decline [7]. - For the UR2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1840 - 1940 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea spot market trading center moved up, and downstream replenishment increased. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1830 - 1860 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - Market Outlook: Output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is rising, and port - collection demand will increase. Industrial demand is for rigid procurement, and the compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate may decline slightly. Enterprise inventories decreased significantly [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1940 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.85% [10]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of May 16, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 89 [14]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Warehouse Receipts: As of May 16, there were 7355 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 2385 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Price: As of May 15, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [26]. - Foreign Price: As of May 15, the FOB China price of urea was 357.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - Basis: As of May 15, the urea basis was 58 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream - Coal and Gas Prices: As of May 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao 5500 - kcal thermal coal was 670 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of May 15, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.25 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. 3.5 Industry - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of May 15, China's urea production was 139.47 tons, down 1.53 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decline of 1.09%. The weekly average daily output was 19.92 tons, down 0.22 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 86.40%, down 0.95% from the previous period [40]. - Inventory: As of May 15, the port sample inventory was 16.3 tons, up 3 tons week - on - week, a rise of 22.56%. As of May 14, the total enterprise inventory was 81.72 tons, down 24.84 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 23.31% [43]. - Export: In March 2025, urea exports were 0.23 tons, up 63.62% month - on - month; the export average price was 221.07 US dollars/ton, down 36.20% month - on - month [46]. 3.6 Downstream - Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates: As of May 15, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.26%, up 2.36 percentage points from last week. The Chinese melamine capacity utilization rate was 74.82% on average, down 0.42 percentage points from last week [49].