Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber futures market was concentratedly released. The offer price of the imported rubber market moved up, and the trading atmosphere among traders was average. The price of the domestic natural rubber market also increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the spot price followed the upward trend. Sellers held firm on their offers, while downstream buyers made cautious purchases based on their rigid demand, resulting in average actual trading volume in the market [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting the tapping season. Recently, there has been a lot of rainy weather in Yunnan, resulting in low raw material output and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has disrupted tapping work, leading to low output of fresh latex and a tight supply of raw materials in the market. To ensure normal production, some processing plants are competing more aggressively for latex [9]. - Last week, the total inventory of spot rubber in Qingdao continued to increase slightly. A large amount of previously mixed rubber that was converted to standard rubber overseas arrived at the port and was stored in the warehouse. The bonded inventory increased significantly, while downstream enterprises mainly consumed their existing inventory and made cautious purchases, leading to a decline in the overall outbound rate of Qingdao warehouses [9]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week. Most semi-steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire enterprises is in a recovery phase. Some enterprises are facing increased sales pressure, their finished product inventory continues to grow, and orders are insufficient, resulting in overall production scheduling being lower than the pre-holiday average [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,450 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Performance: Futures market sentiment was positive, with prices rising. Spot market prices also increased, but trading was average [9]. - Supply: Global production areas are starting tapping. Yunnan and Hainan are affected by weather, resulting in low raw material output and tight supply [9]. - Inventory: Qingdao's spot inventory continued to increase slightly, with bonded inventory increasing significantly and overall outbound rate decreasing [9]. - Demand: Tire enterprise capacity utilization increased, but sales were slow, and inventory continued to grow. All - steel tire production was below pre - holiday levels [9]. - Strategy: Provide short - term price fluctuation ranges for ru2509 and nr2507 contracts [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures increased by 1.95% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber increased by 2.51% [14]. - As of May 16, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [23]. - As of May 16, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai rubber was 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipt of 20 - grade rubber was 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4,435 tons from last week [26]. - Spot Market - As of May 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - As of May 16, the basis of Shanghai rubber was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - As of May 15, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 174 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of May 15, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 61.75 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 54.15 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg [41]. - As of May 16, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 69 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - As of May 15, the price of latex in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [44]. - Import - In March 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 594,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.07% and a year - on - year increase of 20.64%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.6857 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.68% [47]. - Inventory in Qingdao - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons, or 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.28 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1 percentage point; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.94 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [51]. - Downstream - As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [54]. - In March 2025, China's tire export volume was 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 1.9487 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [58]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared to March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [61]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 08:51